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According to the bank’s assessment, the technology is still in its early stages of development: by 2027, sodium-ion batteries could account for about 2% of the global energy storage market, but their share could then grow to 20% by 2030 and up to 37% by 2035. The potential value of the associated investment cycle is estimated at up to $800 billion as the technology scales up, according to CNBC.
A Cheaper and More Sustainable Alternative
Morgan Stanley notes that sodium-ion batteries could compete with lithium-ion batteries due to their lower cost, increased safety, and better performance in cold temperatures. Specifically, in cold climates, they are capable of retaining over 90% of their charge, whereas lithium-ion batteries lose a significant portion of their capacity.
According to analysts, this could enhance the economic viability of renewable energy projects in regions with harsh climates, including northern territories.
Risks and Limitations of the Technology
At the same time, the bank emphasizes that commercializing the technology will require a significant reduction in production costs—by approximately 36%. Supply chains remain an additional challenge: despite the availability of sodium, production requires specific materials, including Prussian blue, which could create new bottlenecks in the industry.
There is also a continuing risk of pressure from the lithium sector: a potential decline in lithium prices and aggressive competition from existing manufacturers could slow the adoption of the new technology.
Market Consolidation and Major Players
According to Morgan Stanley’s forecast, the development of sodium-ion batteries will lead to industry consolidation: large manufacturers capable of scaling up the technology and withstanding price competition will gain an advantage. Analysts cite China’s CATL and other leading battery companies as potential beneficiaries.
The role of General Motors is noted separately; in partnership with Peak Energy, it may consider launching production of sodium-ion systems by 2028. At the same time, analysts emphasize that these are forecasts and possible market development scenarios.
Impact on Commodity Markets
The transition to this new technology may also affect demand for raw materials. According to the Financial Times, copper consumption in the industry could decline by approximately 200,000 metric tons per year, with total global demand at around 28 million metric tons.
Thus, analysts view sodium-ion batteries not only as a technological alternative but also as a potential driver of a new investment cycle in the energy and commodities sectors.
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