Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and the National Energy Security Fund, explained why prices cannot fall below $70, according to NSN.
According to the economist, the current price of crude oil is based on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen. Industry experts predict a decline in prices even despite periodic attacks on ships.
“They’re still factoring in that, one way or another, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen to its previous volumes. It doesn’t matter whether someone will charge a toll for passage or not. What matters is that the full volume of oil that used to pass through there will return,” he explained.
Prices may rise in the future—the situation will depend on whether the OPEC+ alliance countries comply with the agreement on oil production volumes, from which the UAE withdrew during the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Future demand will be higher than it was before the strait was blocked, as countries will have to purchase crude not only for current consumption but also to replenish strategic reserves.
“The Strait of Hormuz could be blocked again, which means it makes sense to stockpile more oil in case of another fuel crisis. Therefore, I believe that demand for oil will remain high in both 2026 and 2027. Prices will remain higher than at the beginning of the year, when the price of Brent crude fell to $60. The realistic price range for the near future is $70–80 per barrel—slightly higher than at the beginning of the year, but not as high as it was at the height of the crisis,” Yushkov added.
During trading on Friday, June 26, global oil prices continued to fall amid a gradual normalization of the situation in the Middle East. By 11:20 a.m. Moscow time, prices for the benchmark North Sea Brent crude had fallen to $73.57 per barrel. The decline from the previous session’s closing level by that time stood at 2.56%, or $1.93. At their lowest point, prices fell to $73.36.
As a reminder, Moldova’s National Energy Regulatory Agency sets daily price caps on gasoline and diesel fuel in accordance with exchange-traded oil prices.
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