The global air freight market has faced a structural crisis due to the unprecedented volume of shipments from the Chinese e-commerce platforms Shein and Temu. The rapid growth in demand for their ultra-cheap products has led companies to charter cargo planes en masse directly from China, effectively depriving other industries—from the automotive sector to the high-tech sector—of their usual logistics capacity.
As a result, even after reaching a three-year high the previous month, global spot rates for air cargo transport jumped again in May, rising by +41% year-over-year, according to an analytical review by CAAS (Cargo Airports & Airline Services).
E-commerce dictates prices
According to data from the consulting firm Cargo Facts, Shein and Temu alone ship approximately 9,000 tons of cargo from China every day. This is equivalent to a full load of nearly 88 heavy Boeing 747-8 cargo planes every 24 hours.
The “factory-to-consumer” business model (direct shipment of small packages by air, bypassing traditional sea routes and warehouses) has led to the blurring of traditional peak seasons in aviation, and spot market rates have risen by 25–40% compared to pre-crisis levels on the Southeast Asia–U.S. and Southeast Asia–Europe routes.
“China’s e-commerce is now literally devouring available cargo space. Major tech corporations, accustomed to quickly delivering components or new gadgets for product launches, are now forced to wait in line or pay triple the rate. We are witnessing a tectonic shift: cheap $10 dresses have begun dictating terms to the market for shipping microchips and aircraft parts,” notes Peter Sand, a leading supply chain analyst at the consulting firm Xeneta.
There is a shortage of cargo planes
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that airlines cannot keep up with expanding their cargo fleets (converting passenger aircraft takes years), and maritime transport is unsuitable for marketplaces due to strict requirements for rapid inventory turnover.
Experts warn: if the pace of Chinese retail expansion continues, by the end of the year global businesses will face a 15–20% shortage of shipping capacity.
This will inevitably lead to longer delivery times for consumer electronics and auto parts worldwide, as well as to increased shipping costs being factored into the final price of goods for the end consumer.
