“High energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East will test Moldova’s resilience, increasing inflationary pressures and exacerbating the structurally high current account deficit. The authorities’ response, the availability of external financing and stronger international reserve buffers help the country to both maintain macroeconomic stability and withstand destabilizing balance of payments pressures,” the publication said.
“In 2025, a severe energy crisis caused by supply disruptions from Transnistria caused the economy to contract by 1.1% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 (although annual growth was 2.3%). Fitch now expects growth to average 3% in 2026-2027,” the report said.
The agency noted the stability of the Moldovan leu against the euro since the beginning of military operations in Iran, given the slight pressure on the domestic currency market. As of May 15, international reserves reached 5.2 billion euros ($6.1 billion), equivalent to 5.1 months of current external payments.
In early March, Fitch Ratings affirmed Moldova’s long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B+’ with a ‘stable’ outlook.
On May 20, the IMF again worsened the forecast of key macroeconomic indicators for Moldova against the background of reaching agreements on the launch of a 3-year non-financial program of policy coordination instrument (PCI) requested by Chisinau.
According to the Fund’s assessment, Moldova’s GDP growth rate will slow down to 1.5% this year from 2.4% in 2025.
In April’s World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF worsened the forecast of Moldova’s GDP growth this year to 1.9% from 2.3%.
