While expected wheat and corn production remained unchanged from the previous month, a report released on May 21 shows a decline in production of the two crops between 2025 and 2026. Specifically, it forecasts wheat production to fall 3% year-on-year to 820 million tons and corn production to fall 2% to 1.3 billion tons, the IGC report said.
“Due to increased consumption of wheat, corn and barley, total consumption is projected to increase,” the IGC said. “End stocks are expected to decline by 4%, but to 615 million tons, in line with the five-year average.”
IGC forecasts soybean production in 2026-2027 to be slightly higher than the April report, reaching a record 442 million tons.
Soybean consumption will increase to a record 445 million tons as “demand in all end-use segments will support processing as aggregate stocks are moderately depleted.”
The council also revised down its rice production forecasts, down 3 million tons from the previous month. But if that figure is achieved, it would still equal last year’s record of 545 million tons.
Grain trade
Total grain trade is forecast to decline by 2%, “mainly due to lower imports from North Africa and the Middle East.”
IGC predicts global rice trade will peak at 62 million tons, up 4% from the previous year, “due to stronger buying from Africa.”
Most markets are holding steady, with the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index (GOI) up 2.6% on the previous month, led by a 4.2% rise in wheat prices.
The overall index was up nearly 8% year-on-year, with soybeans (up 12%) and barley (up 9%) showing the largest increases.
