Quotes of the most liquid contract for orange juice jumped by 5.8% – this is the largest daily increase for the last more than seven days. Prices rose by the maximum allowed by the exchange 10 cents, reaching $1.832 per pound, writes EastFruit with reference to Bloomberg.
According to forecasts by research organization Fundecitrus, 255.2 million cases of oranges will be harvested in Brazil in the upcoming 2026-2027 season – 13% less than a year earlier. Expected production will be about 15% below the average for the past decade, the organization said.
Orange groves in the country’s main production regions continue to suffer from the spread of so-called “citrus greening,” a dangerous plant disease. In addition, Fundecitrus points to the negative effects of last year’s abnormal heat wave, which disrupted the flowering process, a key period that largely determines future fruit production.
The projected average yield is 697 boxes per hectare, down 14% from the previous season. Decreases were recorded for all varieties grown in Brazil.
“The main factors affecting yields are the spread of citrus greening, leprosy outbreaks, the projected development of El Niño in the second half of 2026, and the tendency to shift harvest dates to later dates,” Fundecitrus said in the report.
The global orange juice market is under severe pressure due to tightening supply caused by the spread of citrus greening in both Brazil and the state of Florida, another key producer. Despite a marked tightening of supply conditions, changing consumer preferences and slowing global demand have caused futures prices to retreat from 2024 peaks.
