Ukraine is one of the world’s largest grain suppliers, and last year its agricultural sector accounted for more than half of its export revenue. Russian strikes on the port of Odessa, through which about 90% of grain shipments typically pass, are blocking these flows, and alternative routes via the Danube are limited due to a drought that has led to record-low water levels in the river.
The export collapse is creating problems as the new harvest fills storage facilities and puts pressure on domestic prices. By early November, the country’s grain storage capacity—approximately 59 million metric tons—could be fully utilized, and the storage deficit by late fall is expected to reach about 11 million metric tons.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine has approved subsidized loans for agricultural producers and plans further measures to increase storage capacity. Ukraine has also asked the European Commission to allocate 220 million euros ($253 million) in grants to subsidize interest on loans for small and medium-sized farmers.
In an effort to develop alternative supply channels, Kyiv and Bucharest have agreed to expand shipments through the Romanian port of Constanța. Meanwhile, the state-owned railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia is seeking additional transit routes.
Grain is already being rerouted through Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary, but these routes cannot even come close to replacing Odessa’s export capacity.
According to Bloomberg, the U.S. Department of Agriculture also expects a significant decline in Ukrainian grain shipments. The USDA’s official estimate for wheat exports is 14.5 million metric tons, but according to the Foreign Agricultural Service, shipments will total only 10.8 million metric tons. The forecast for corn exports is 14 million metric tons, which is 39% lower than the official estimate.
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