The reason for imposing the export duty was an increase in the indicative price of wheat exported from Russia to $239.4 per metric ton. This exceeds the threshold set by the Russian government for the automatic imposition of the duty, according to the Ecofin Agency.
A floating duty system has been in effect in Russia since 2021. The duty rate is calculated weekly based on export contracts and amounts to 70% of the difference between the base price and the indicative export price. If the price exceeds the set level, the duty automatically increases; if prices fall, it may be reduced to zero.
The reinstatement of the duty comes amid an expected decline in global wheat supply in the 2026–27 marketing year. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast, global production will decline to 820 million metric tons, which is 3% less than last season, while consumption will reach 824.5 million metric tons and once again exceed production. Global wheat trade may also decline by approximately 6%—to 213.3 million metric tons.
Under these conditions, any export restrictions imposed by major suppliers could intensify pressure on global prices. Russia will remain the world’s largest wheat exporter, with projected shipments of 47 million metric tons in the new marketing year. Changes in its export policy are being closely monitored by importing countries.
The resumption of the tariff is likely to have the most significant impact on African countries, which have been actively increasing their purchases of Russian wheat in recent years. Analysts note that the tariff itself remains relatively small for now, but as export prices continue to rise, its amount will automatically increase. This could lead to higher prices for Russian wheat for importers and provide additional support for global prices during the 2026–27 season.
At present, as Logos Press reported, citing specialized Romanian media, Russian wheat is the cheapest in the Black Sea region, which limits other countries in the region’s ability to export this grain.
