IGC’s grain production forecast decreased by 3.3 million tons compared to the situation in March. The reason is the worsening prospects for the harvest of all major crops, including wheat and corn. Nevertheless, the new world harvest will be the second largest in the history of observations, it will amount to 2,414 million tons.
The supply forecast for the next marketing season is slightly reduced compared to the current one. But the supply will be high due to the high level of carryover stocks, partially compensating for the lower production.
Consumption is forecast to rise for the fourth consecutive year, according to IGC, but growth in the forage and industrial sectors will slow. Compared to the March forecast, the world consumption estimate is lowered by 3.3 million tons to 2,436.6 million tons, down from the current season (2,422.1 million tons).
The global grain trade forecast for the month changed little – 448.3 million tons (previous forecast – 451.4 million tons).
Transitional stocks forecast. After an expected increase in stocks for the 2025/2026 season, carryover stocks could fall again next season, including wheat, corn and barley. IGC forecasts them at 614.9 million tons (637.7 million tons).
