© RIA Novosti
Such data are given in a new study by the Association of European Businesses (AEB), RBC reports. Business sentiment is changing against the backdrop of protracted sanctions, problems with international settlements and continuing geopolitical uncertainty. Already 39% of surveyed companies predict a decline in the Russian economy in the next one or two years. A year ago this number was 22%.
The business activity index has gone down
At the same time, European companies are not yet ready to lose optimism completely. More than half of the survey participants expect to increase turnover in Russia over the next three years, and 40% expect profit growth. But even here the warning signals are becoming more noticeable: the share of companies forecasting a drop in turnover has almost doubled over the year, from 10% to 18%.
The AEB Business Climate Index has also gone down – from 127 to 111 points out of 200 possible. Formally, the index remains in the neutral zone, but this is one of the weakest results in recent years. For comparison: in 2021, the index reached 145 points, and after the start of a large-scale sanctions crisis in 2022, it collapsed to 80.
More and more companies are speaking openly about the consequences of sanctions. While a year ago 46% of survey participants reported serious damage, now it is already 55%. In general, 86% of respondents faced restrictions.
The main problem is sanctions and reputational risks
Foreign businesses cite US and EU sanctions, Russia’s retaliatory measures, difficulties with payments, foreign partners refusing to cooperate and reputational risks of working in the Russian market as the main problems.
However, in the long term, European companies still look at Russia much more calmly. Almost 80% of survey participants believe that the country’s economy will continue to grow in the next six to ten years.
The AEB survey was conducted from March to May 2026 among top managers of 119 companies. The survey included business representatives from Germany, France, Italy, the USA, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Japan and other countries.
