ECB raises interest rates for first time since 2023
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Europe is raising the stakes

At its meeting on June 11, 2026, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points. This decision marked the first rate hike since September 2023 and was a response to inflationary pressures caused by the geopolitical crisis and the war in the Middle East. The ECB downgraded its forecast, expecting average inflation in 2026 to reach 3.0%. The baseline forecast for eurozone GDP growth in 2026 has been lowered to 0.8%.
Irina Covalenco Reading time: 1 minute
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The main refinancing rate has been raised to 2.40%. The deposit rate (the key policy benchmark) has been raised to 2.25%. The marginal lending rate has risen to 2.65%.

For businesses and households in the eurozone, this decision means an inevitable increase in the cost of mortgages and commercial loans.

At a press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the decision to raise rates was a necessary signal to prevent inflation from taking root. She emphasized that the war in the Middle East is causing a severe energy price shock, which has already begun to spread to other sectors of the economy.

The full impact of the conflict on inflation and GDP will depend on the duration and intensity of the energy shock, as well as the scale of its secondary effects, the ECB president noted.

The central banker refrained from making far-reaching plans. The ECB is not making any firm commitments regarding the future path of interest rates. Decisions will be made based on incoming data from meeting to meeting.


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