According to the agency’s assessment, the consequences of the energy shock will lead to a significant decline in demand even before supplies from the Persian Gulf return to normal levels. As a result, the market risks shifting from a shortage to a surplus as early as next year, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The IEA has revised downward its forecast for global oil consumption this year. The agency now expects demand to fall by 1.1 million barrels per day, compared with its previous estimate of 420,000 barrels. The revision is due to persistently high energy prices and supply disruptions, which are putting pressure on the global economy.
According to the IEA, the situation will begin to change next year. As trade recovers, oil prices fall, and economic conditions improve, global demand could rise by 2 million barrels per day. However, supply will grow much faster. The agency expects production to increase by approximately 8 million barrels per day. Early projections for 2027 already point to the emergence of a significant surplus.
If this scenario plays out, countries will be able to begin replenishing depleted stocks and building new strategic reserves as they reassess their energy policies in the wake of the crisis.
