Analysts noted that the four-year price cycle tied to halvings remains intact. However, the amplitude of fluctuations is decreasing: each new peak is becoming less “euphoric,” and the declines are becoming less severe, according to forklog.com.
Researchers called the peak recorded in October 2025 at $124,824 the calmest in history. In their view, this is due to the dominance of institutional capital and the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have smoothed out volatility compared to past retail rallies.
Where is the bottom?
To determine a possible bottom, experts used the realized price (the average cost of coins purchased by all holders). Currently, this figure stands at around $53,000.
In past cycles, the price of Bitcoin typically fell 25–44% below this level. At present, only four out of 13 key bottom indicators have signaled that a low has been reached.
Galaxy’s scenarios are as follows:
– base case: a drop to $40,000–$46,000;
– Pessimistic: in the event of severe panic, the price could drop to $30,000–$37,000;
– Optimistic: support at the cost basis level around $51,000–$54,000.
Timing and Risks
Historically, the bottom forms 12–13 months after reaching an all-time high. This means that the window for the bottom to form will open in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Researchers cautioned: these calculations are based on the cost of acquiring coins. If a panic sell-off begins, this figure will decrease, which could push support levels even lower.
