On June 10, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $61,000. But by 10:00 a.m. Chisinau time on June 11, it had risen to nearly $63,000.
In any case, this month has been the worst for the coin in the past six months. And all of the top 10 cryptocurrencies are down 3–10%, writes RBC.
Fed Rate and Bitcoin Strategy
The upward trend in Bitcoin began to shift to the current downward trend after negative U.S. inflation data for April was released, explained Alexander Kraiko, lead analyst at crypto broker Cifra Markets. On May 12, it was reported that inflation had accelerated to a three-year high (3.8%). Bitcoin, which was trading above $80,000 in the middle of last month, has since fallen by about 25%.
Due to rising inflation, expectations for interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) have dimmed, and the market is beginning to price in tighter monetary policy, increasing pressure on cryptocurrencies, the expert says. According to him, this is particularly important for cryptocurrencies, as they are considered risky assets and are highly dependent on the amount of free liquidity in the economy.
The sale of 32 bitcoins by Michael Saylor’s Strategy company, which came to light in early June, has exacerbated the negative sentiment. The transaction volume is not significant for the company, so from a financial standpoint, its rationale appears questionable, Kraiko noted. Nevertheless, he says that the very fact of the sale by the largest Bitcoin holder has heightened investor concerns and put additional pressure on market sentiment.
“The immediate target for a recovery appears to be the $65,000–$66,000 range, while stronger growth seems less likely for now. This week, I expect movement within the $60,000–$66,000 range without the formation of a sustained new trend,” the expert said.
He also noted that Ethereum was hit hardest during the recent decline. While Bitcoin lost about 18% over the week, Ether fell by approximately 25% at one point, dropping from $2,000 to $1,500.
According to Kraiko’s assessment, projects in the decentralized exchange (DEX) and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors are demonstrating relative stability. These sectors continue to attract investor interest thanks to strong market narratives. Despite the overall market decline, such projects fell less sharply than most altcoins and recovered more quickly after the sell-off.
The analyst believes that the passage of the Clarity Act—a bill aimed at creating clearer regulations for the cryptocurrency market in the U.S.—could be a positive factor. At the same time, market participants believe that the chances of the Clarity Act being passed this year are diminishing—U.S. lawmakers have a very busy schedule, there are still unresolved issues with the bill, and the summer recess is approaching.
However, Kraiko cited the situation in the stock market as a more important factor. According to him, the current investment frenzy is primarily linked to the artificial intelligence market and computing equipment manufacturers.
“As long as this boom continues, it will be difficult for cryptocurrencies to show strong momentum,” the analyst believes.
Risk-off mode
According to independent IT consultant Roman Nekrasov, the market is showing consolidation with a moderate bearish trend, which is linked to geopolitical uncertainty and rising inflationary risks.
This is reflected in the ongoing outflow of capital from Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Nekrasov explained. Since the beginning of June, more than $1.8 billion has been withdrawn from Bitcoin funds. This means that the funds have put the corresponding amount of Bitcoin up for sale, which inevitably put pressure on the cryptocurrency’s price, the expert added.
“Investors prefer to remain in risk-off mode due to fears of accelerating inflation amid high oil prices and the ongoing Middle East conflict,” said Nekrasov.
He pointed out that the military actions surrounding Iran, which have affected major oil producers (Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iran itself), threaten to become the main reason for global financial regulators to shift toward a more hawkish monetary policy. Investors do not expect a cut in the U.S. federal funds rate at all until the end of 2026 (according to CME FedWatch), which means they will continue to view risky assets with caution, and no new liquidity is expected in the crypto market, the expert added.
“In terms of specific support and resistance levels, BTC will trade within a volatile range of roughly $58,000–70,000 in June–August, with a possible drop to $55,000. I wouldn’t rule out Bitcoin testing an even lower level—$52,000—but only briefly,” the analyst believes.
Overall, the market is oversold, and the most likely scenario for the next couple of weeks is a return to $62,000–65,000, Nekrasov said. In his view, a rebound to $70,000–80,000 is likely only if there is strong positive news.
Seasonal factors and negative sentiment
The start of summer is traditionally accompanied by a decline in trading activity in the crypto market, said Vagiz Nurullov, managing partner at VG GROUP. According to the expert, this seasonal factor is compounded by a shift in investor attention toward other events, such as the SpaceX IPO expected on June 11, and continued interest in the technology sector, which reduces the engagement of some market participants in cryptocurrencies.
The analyst agreed that rising inflation in the U.S. and expectations of a possible tightening of monetary policy have influenced market sentiment. He also noted Strategy’s sale of bitcoins and added that the company’s subsequent purchase of more than 1,500 BTC only intensified the debate regarding the reasons behind the first transaction and raised doubts about the effectiveness of the company’s communication.
“For the market, trust in large institutional holders is often just as important as the volume of transactions themselves,” Nurullov explained.
Against the backdrop of rising volatility and deteriorating market sentiment, some market participants are already pricing in a scenario where Bitcoin falls below $50,000, the analyst said. However, in his view, such a pessimistic scenario appears premature at this stage.
In the medium term, the base case remains consolidation in the $61,000–$72,000 range per BTC, the analyst believes. Potential drivers could include a reduction in tensions in the Middle East and the stabilization of inflation expectations. There are currently no significant internal triggers for sustained growth in the crypto market, Nurullov believes.
