This is due to the high crop-2025 (91.1 million tons of wheat, 10.3% more than the previous year’s level) and pressure from exporters, whose revenues have decreased due to the strengthening of the ruble. With the start of the new agricultural season in July, domestic wheat prices will start to recover. The gap with last year will narrow by 6%. However, agrarians will not be able to increase profitability: this year they will reduce the area under spring wheat by at least 4.6%, according to Kommersant.
The reason for the decline is the strengthening of the ruble
Exporters’ profitability depends on the exchange rate: they buy wheat for rubles and sell it for dollars. The fall in revenues forces them to reduce prices inside the country. At the same time, according to ICAR, wheat exports in the 2025/26 season may grow by 6.8% to 47 million tons, i.e. 52% of the Russian harvest will go abroad.
The profitability of grain producers is now extremely low: in the center of Russia it is zero, in the south it is no more than 10-15%, whereas before it used to exceed 20%. Agrarians are reducing the area under grain crops: over the last five years the decrease has reached 9%. This year, the area under spring wheat will decrease by another 4.6% (to 10.5 million hectares).
Prices are expected to recover with the start of the new agricultural season in July. In July-September, according to the forecast of Eiler and RSHB, a ton of wheat will cost 13.1 thousand rubles (6% less year-on-year), and by the end of the year the price may increase by 4%. In 2027, analysts expect growth of 7-10%.
