According to the materials Bloomberg, wheat shows a significant weekly growth, almost the maximum for two months. This happened against the background of continuing concerns about weather conditions and reduction of fertilizer supplies due to the conflict in Iran. These factors have increased concerns about the future harvest.
On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, wheat contracts rose nearly 5% over the week, the biggest jump since February. Winter durum wheat futures continued to rise and reached the highest level since June 2024.
In Australia, drought and a shortage of agricultural inputs had a negative impact on wheat acreage. This country is a major producer and exporter of this crop.
In Europe, drought conditions are also preconditions
According to Vaisala XWeather forecasts, dry weather continued in parts of the Black Sea region and Europe, affecting the outlook for wheat supplies from key producing regions.
Tobin Gorey, strategist at Cornucopia Agri Analytics, noted that the price increase was largely due to prolonged drought in western hard red-grain winter wheat (HRW) growing regions. He also stressed that concerns about fertilizer supply, particularly for winter crops in the south such as Australia, as well as the upcoming El Niño event, contributed to the price increase.
The aforementioned newsmaker noted that the bullish trend in the near term may be limited, given the oversupply in the global market. However, any potential problems with the harvest in Argentina or Australia may become a catalyst for additional price growth.
And according to a Bloomberg survey, wheat acreage planted in Australia in the 2026/27 season could fall to a seven-year low. This is due to low prices, fertilizer and fuel shortages, which will have a negative impact on crop prospects.
