These are the main conclusions of the monthly report of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), published on January 13, 2026. The report also contains the first forecasts of the global market development for 2027.
The document emphasizes that US oil production will move to a decline after the 2025 record, as the slowdown in drilling activity will outpace the growth in drilling productivity.
The main decline will fall on production in the 48 continental states, which may signal the approaching crisis in shale oil production in the United States, specifies the edition neftegaz.ru.
An important factor in the balance of supply and demand in the global market EIA calls the accumulation of strategic reserves in China, which accounted for a significant part of the oil reserves accumulated in 2025. It is expected that in 2026 China will continue to increase strategic reserves at almost the same rate – just under 1 million barrels per day, and in 2027 will reduce the rate of increase in strategic reserves by almost a third.
EIA estimates that oil demand growth will slow to 1.13 mb/d in 2026, with demand itself totaling 104.82 mb/d. The forecast for demand growth is reduced by 100 thousand barrels per day.
And in 2027, demand is forecast to grow by 1.27 mb/d to 106.09 mb/d. Consumption growth in 2027 will accelerate as global economic activity increases. Based on the Oxford Economics forecast, EIA assumes that global GDP will grow by 3.1% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027 (up from 3.4% in 2025).
The EIA report also highlights that almost all of the demand growth is coming from countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), while demand in OECD countries is stagnant.
