Marina Solovyova, program director at the Expert Grup center, calls the interpretation of these figures—which suggests that prices for new housing are expected to rise—”strange.”
A “Strange” Interpretation of the Figures
“The press reports that construction companies are allegedly preparing for the ‘sharpest’ price increase for new housing compared to prices in other sectors,” the expert comments. “That’s not true.”
“The NBS report states that, ‘according to executives, the construction industry is expected to see moderate growth in economic activity (business sentiment balance +7%) and sales revenue (business sentiment balance +12%) in the third quarter of 2026; relative stability in the number of employees (business sentiment balance -3%); and an increase in prices for construction work (business sentiment balance +21%).”
The figure of +21% does not indicate a rise in prices, explains Marina Solovyova. It means that among managers at construction companies, the share of those who expect prices in the industry to rise is 21 percentage points higher than the share of those who expect prices to fall or remain unchanged.
“Solving this equation, we find that 39.5% of managers at construction companies believe prices will fall or remain unchanged, while 60.5% believe prices will rise,” the expert continues. “This says nothing about exactly how much prices will rise—whether significantly or not—and, moreover, it doesn’t even indicate that prices will rise at all. These expectations may or may not be realized.”
The indicator measures only managers’ sentiment, Marina Solovyova emphasizes. “Judging by the data presented by the National Bank of Serbia, sentiment in the construction industry is, if anything, optimistic,” she concludes. “And the press shouldn’t once again be playing into the hands of the construction lobby.”
