demography

On the path of European integration in the past year, the country continued to stumble over systemic problems. One of the most acute of them is demographic. And any development plan, even the most elaborate one, cannot be realized without people. We seem to have serious problems with this.

The demographic forecast indicates that Moldova will face a rapid decline in population over the next two decades. Olga Gagauz, Doctor of Science, Associate Professor at the National Institute of Economic Research, in her analysis tells about three scenarios of the situation development. Scenario 1 (low) – the most probable, it assumes a reduction in the population to 1,835,900 in 2040, or approximately by 24%. Scenario 2 (medium) predicts a decrease in population to 1,955.6 thousand people by 2040 (-19.3%). Scenario 3 (high) is the most optimistic and assumes the smallest decrease in population to 2,101.7 thousand people (-13.3%).

In the traditional report prepared by the experts of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Transition Report for 2025-26, entitled “Brave old world” (Brave old world), aging and shrinking working-age population are named as the main challenges for the countries of the Old World.

Moldova ranks 221st among 227 countries in the world in terms of fertility rate, according to the CIA World Factbook, Logos Press reports.

The capital city’s positive natural population growth increased in the first half of 2025, which goes against the demographic trends of the whole country in recent decades, Logos Press reported.

The second set of final data from the 2024 census campaign provides an opportunity not only to look at the demographic, migration and educational profile of the population, but also to assess the changes that have occurred over the past ten years. They are ambiguous.