Post-American Europe: security risks and NATO’s uncertain future

In any case, the disintegration of the alliance has already begun. Long-standing and time-honored structures such as NATO do not usually collapse overnight or in a single act. Rather, they erode as confidence in their fundamental commitments – namely, mutual defense – wanes. This is precisely what is happening in President Trump’s second term, especially now that Europeans have abstained from participating in his disastrous war in the Middle East. Meanwhile, despite the Republican Party’s alleged commitment to maintaining a strong U.S. defense, no prominent party figure has condemned Trump for the irreversible damage he has caused.

Throughout the Cold War and beyond, America’s presence in Europe was crucial to European security and internal stability. The U.S. provided the peace and prosperity that allowed for economic integration and eventually the creation of the European Union. But Trump and his MAGA movement have absolutely no concern for this history. For reasons that are barely intelligible, they harbor a deep hostility to the EU and are intent on returning Europe to an era of self-destructive nationalism.

This is a dangerously misguided goal, given that achieving it will ultimately make America itself much weaker and more isolated. But such arguments have no effect on Trump. After the electoral defeat of his illiberal ally in Hungary, Viktor Orban, he will be even more inclined to leave the Europeans to their own devices.

Europe’s security is in Europe’s own hands

For the first time in eight decades, Europe will be left to its own devices. Europeans will have to decide their own fate and take responsibility for their own security. This might seem like a trivial remark if it were not for Europe’s uniquely bloody history. The U.S. withdrawal from the European theater of operations after World War I set the stage for Hitler’s rise to power and, ultimately, for World War II. Had the world’s leading military and economic power remained in Europe during the interwar years, German revanchism would have had no chance of success.

It was this lesson that the World War II generation learned from the war and applied in the postwar period. U.S. President Harry S. Truman maintained a strong U.S. presence in Europe not only to counter the threat from Stalin’s Red Army – which stood in Berlin, the center of Europe – but also to allay European fears of German revanchism. This U.S. decision set the stage for a move toward “ever closer union” in Europe. It was America’s presence on the continent that allowed the eventual reunification of Germany and the eastward expansion of NATO and the EU. Without it, Europe as we know it would never have emerged.

So what does the post-American future hold for Europe? Will it be able to ensure its security and maintain its unity without the US? For Germany, which has its own history of hegemonic aspirations on the continent, America’s departure raises difficult questions. Does the current generation of German political leadership possess the historical sensitivity needed to assume a new role in partnership with France and others? The growing popularity of the far-right Alternative for Germany party shows that nothing can be taken for granted.

As for the question of who will lead Europe, there is no alternative to Germany and France. The two strongest European powers must take responsibility for filling the vacuum. Europeans can no longer simply wait for the U.S. to provide the necessary leadership.

The question arises: do the Americans realize that they are destroying the greatest diplomatic success in their history, as well as significantly weakening the foundation of American power and prosperity? There is no reason to believe that the U.S. can simply abandon its strategic partner without incurring any costs.

Unfortunately, the window of opportunity to change course has closed. The long period of American protectorate has come to an end under Trump, and it is not coming back. Europe must now chart its own course. One way or another, the transatlantic relationship – the very idea of the West – will have to be rethought when the MAGA fever settles down. But even amidst so much uncertainty, one thing remains clear: in the new world order, Europeans and Americans will always be stronger together than separately.