At the start of 2026, currency markets were assuming a familiar picture: the U.S. economy is slowing so much that the Federal Reserve is cutting rates twice, the European Central Bank is acting cautiously, and most of the other central banks are ready to follow Washington’s lead.
The conflict in Iran has changed thescenario
Energy prices have soared, inflation expectations have shifted, and central banks have talked about raising rates. The Fed has maintained a pause. This has opened the way for some currencies to strengthen against the US dollar, Euronews notes.
The Brazilian real’s nearly 11% appreciation since the beginning of the year is the best performance among all significant currencies against the U.S. dollar in 2026.
Next come the Australian dollar and the Norwegian krone. The Australian dollar has gained 7% since the beginning of the year. The Norwegian krone is almost on a par. Its exchange rate has risen by almost 7% since the beginning of the year. As a major oil exporter, Norway is one of the few economies whose economy benefits from rising oil prices.
The Colombian peso fits the same pattern: oil exports dominate the country’s external revenues, and the currency closely follows energy prices in 2026.
The Hungarian forint showed the most dramatic reversal of the year with a gain of 6.32%. The currency has appreciated by around 8% in the last two weeks alone, and April 2026 could be its best month since July 2020.
