© REUTERS / Bernadett Szabo
The baseline scenario assumes that about 1.5 million people from Ukraine may enter Moldova within 60-90 days. The peak load is expected within 7-10 days. At the same time, the authorities believe that up to 150,000 people may temporarily stay in the country.
The document notes that the main load on border crossing points may fall on Palanca-Mayaci-Udobnoye and Tudora-Starokazache in the southeast of the country, as well as on Otaci-Mohyliv-Podolskyy in the north.
The plan includes five operational sub-scenarios. The first of them – “South” – envisages a daily entry of about 50,000 people, most of whom will cross the border through southern checkpoints. The “North” scenario could be activated in the event of intensified fighting in the south of Odessa Oblast or the destruction of a bridge in the Mayaki area, which could redirect flows of people to the northern sections of the Moldovan border.
The authorities also predict that about 1.4 million people could travel across the Moldovan-Romanian border to European Union countries. This, according to estimates, could lead to serious congestion and the formation of vehicle queues up to 10-15 kilometers long at checkpoints in the direction of Romania.
As for the expected profile of the displaced persons, the document indicates that up to 95 percent of them may be Ukrainian citizens. Among them, about 60 percent are women and up to 55 percent are children. Most are expected to arrive without sufficient financial means and without their own transportation.
As Logos Press previously wrote, the government intends to consider and approve the National Mechanism for uniform and coordinated management of the situation in case of a significant influx of foreign citizens. The initiative is based on the experience gained since 2022, when Moldova faced a large-scale influx of displaced persons from the conflict zone, which created a significant burden on state institutions and revealed the need for better inter-institutional coordination.
