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According to the first ten-year forecast by the research firm IWSR, global alcohol consumption will continue to decline at least through 2031. Already in 2024–2025, consumption of beer, wine, and spirits fell by 2%, and analysts estimate that this trend will continue in the coming years.
The decline will be particularly noticeable in countries that have formed the backbone of the global alcohol market for decades, writes Euronews. By 2035, consumption in the U.S. and China could drop by nearly 20%. A 14% decline is expected in Germany, 15% in Japan, and 13% in the UK.
It is telling that this decline is occurring against a backdrop of growth in the number of potential consumers. According to IWSR forecasts, by 2035 the global population of legal drinking age will increase by 9%, yet the total market volume will remain approximately 1% below 2025 levels.
On a per-capita basis, annual consumption of pure alcohol will decline by about half a liter over the next ten years—equivalent to two bottles of spirits per year.
While developed markets are losing volume, emerging economies are becoming the drivers of growth. The most impressive growth is expected in India, where alcohol consumption could rise by 38% between 2025 and 2035. Growth is also forecast in Colombia (+26%), Vietnam (+15%), and Mexico (+13%).
“By 2035, the market landscape will be radically different from what we see today,” said IWSR President and Managing Director Marten Lodewijks.
The wine market will be hit harder than other categories. Global wine consumption is projected to decline by 14% over the next ten years. For spirits, the decline will be about 2%, and for beer, approximately 1%.
The ready-to-drink (RTD) segment—pre-mixed cocktails and similar products—remains an exception. According to IWSR estimates, this market will grow by 17% by 2035.
According to Luke Tegner, head of IWSR’s consulting division, global RTD consumption exceeded 1 billion nine-liter cases for the first time in 2025, and there are no signs of a slowdown in growth yet.
The global alcohol market is not disappearing, but rather shifting in terms of geography and consumer preferences. While growth in the past was driven by Europe, North America, and China, in the coming decade, India and other fast-growing markets will become the main drivers of demand, and the ready-to-drink segment will be the primary beneficiary of these changes.
