The downward revision of the forecast for 2026 is due to a general deterioration in the global economic outlook due to geopolitical tensions, in particular the conflict in the Middle East, and risks to energy infrastructure. The downward revision was made also for the region as a whole.
For comparison, the World Bank in April 2026 even more significantly worsened its forecast for Moldova for the same period – to 1.9% (against January’s 2.7%). The Government of Moldova within the framework of the “Program of Economic Reforms for 2026-2028” envisages growth at the level of 3.3% in 2027 and 3.6% in 2028.
This is stated in the World Economic Outlook report (World Economic Outlook, April 2026) and a more detailed document on the reasons for the revision for Moldova (IMF Staff Country Report No. 2026/059).
Average annual inflation is projected at 5.5%. The current account deficit is projected at 20.4% of GDP. The Fund forecasts an increase in the budget deficit to 4.8% of GDP.
IMF recommendations
Due to the updated forecasts, the authorities are advised to continue fiscal reforms to alleviate pressure on public finances, as the deficit may rise to 4.8% of GDP due to increased capital expenditures.
The Fund also advises to simplify the tax system and review exemptions, particularly in the area of VAT, to mobilize domestic revenues. IMF experts also recommend rationalizing government spending mainly by revising public sector salaries, considering it necessary to balance these current expenditures with real budget revenues from domestic sources.
The Fund also emphasizes that the efficient use of the EU Growth Plan funds (up to 1.9 billion euros) is the main chance for Moldova to reach higher growth rates in the future.
