The short-term restoration of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz proved to be fragile. The agreement reached on Tuesday, April 7, was already threatened the same day after Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon, which, according to Tehran, violated the truce. Donald Trump’s statements on Sunday about the possible “blocking” of the strategic maritime hub of the Middle East also added to the uncertainty, writes FashionNetwork. As a result, the market faced a new wave of instability, and shipping companies began to reconsider routes and risk premiums.
Container rates: growth, correction and regional distortions
Against the background of these events, freight dynamics remains multidirectional. Thus, on February 26, before the aggravation of the situation, transportation of a container from Shanghai to Rotterdam cost $2,094, and to Genoa – $2,826. Already by April 3, tariffs reached peak values – $5,543 and $3,529 respectively, which meant an increase of 21.5% and 25% in six weeks.
However, according to the Drewry Index of April 9, a correction followed, with rates to Genoa down 3% and to Rotterdam down 9%. At the same time, only one canceled flight on the line was recorded, indicating relative stability in capacity. A temporary two-week ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz region allowed for a partial recovery of sea traffic, but carriers remain cautious due to the lack of stable guarantees and clear transit conditions.
Against this backdrop, Sino-US routes are showing the opposite dynamic. From April 2 to April 9, the fare on the Shanghai-New York line rose 7% to $3,671, while Shanghai-Los Angeles rose 9.3% to $2,910. Since the end of February, the overall increases were 32.5% and 32.8% respectively. The main factor was a 13% decrease in available sea freight capacity compared to the previous month.
Air cargo transportation and restructuring of global supply chains
In parallel, volatility has also affected air cargo transportation. Airlines introduced “war surcharges” for flights through the Middle East. Emirates SkyCargo has recovered about 60% of its schedule, Etihad Airways 40% and Qatar Airways 20%. Despite the partial recovery, capacity shortages remain.
According to Freightos, fares from South Asia to Europe rose 62% to $4.17 per kilogram. From Southeast Asia to Europe rose 33% to $4.50 per kilogram. Transportation from Europe to the Middle East doubled in price to $3.67 per kilogram. At the same time, partial stabilization is also recorded: China-Europe decreased by 7% to $4.67 per kilogram, and Southeast Asia-Europe by 10%, while South Asia remains stable.
The realignment of trade flows between Asia and Europe is also changing the role of Mediterranean ports. As of April 2, shipping from Shanghai to Genoa cost $3,529 versus $2,543 to Rotterdam. Tensions in the Red Sea, ongoing piracy risks and conflict in the region are intensifying the reallocation of routes.
At the end of 2025, a structural shift has begun, with the Strait of Gibraltar being seen as a more direct route to Europe across the Atlantic. Carriers are making greater use of transshipment hubs, including Tangier-Med and Algeciras, to optimize costs. However, such schemes increase costs, delivery times and fragment supply chains, creating long-term pressure on the cost of imports to Europe.
