He bases his forecast not on technical indicators, but on the history of the largest US public companies. According to his calculations, the launch of spot ETFs in January 2024 served as the equivalent of an IPO for the first cryptocurrency, and the countdown to tenfold growth should be measured from that very point, writes beincrypto.com.
Bitcoin as a ‘newcomer to the stock market’
Krueger, a Stanford graduate with a PhD and, by his own definition, a Bitcoin maximalist, points out that the stock market’s greatest success stories have never been overnight successes. It took Facebook and Google nine years each to grow tenfold. Nvidia managed it in seven years, and Salesforce in ten.
The point of this forecast is that, prior to the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin effectively did not exist for Wall Street as a fully-fledged investment vehicle. Krueger refers to January 2024, when the funds were approved and began trading, as the cryptocurrency’s ‘institutional IPO’. At that point, Bitcoin was worth around $40,000–45,000 – which, according to him, is the ‘offering price’.
Where does the figure of $400,000 come from?
It’s simple arithmetic. It has been 2.6 years since the launch of the ETF. If we apply the same model to Bitcoin that worked for Nvidia or Google, a tenfold increase from the ‘IPO price’ gives a range of $400–450 thousand.
Krueger does not specify an exact date, but sets an upper limit of seven years or less. He based this benchmark on the example of Nvidia.
The investor does not explain exactly what will drive Bitcoin’s growth – capital inflows via the ETF, macroeconomic factors, or something else. His argument is that assets which the institutional market has begun to take seriously have, over time, shown tenfold growth. Bitcoin, according to Krüger, is following the same pattern.
This story was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.The translation was also reviewed by the Logos Press editorial team.
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