It’s gone again: not all of it, but a lot of it
In May, the media leitmotif for European apple business forecasts-2026 was set by a landmark publication in the authoritative specialized publication Fresh Plaza with a catchy headline: “Damage from frosts in Eastern Europe may lead to a doubling of apple prices next season”.
The message was picked up and developed by the agricultural media. Some of them in the past month reported with reference to expert estimates that the 2026 apple harvest in Poland – and it is this important “apple power” of the European Union that is most often mentioned in the context of spring frosts – could be reduced by 50%.
The events at the beginning of the last season followed exactly the same scenario. In spring 2025 in the information field of Europe (not only in the media, but also in the main forum – Prognos Fruit conference) Polish corporate environment predicted the harvest-2025 in the range of 3.4-3.6 million tons. And they lamented the fact that the Polish apple business could not return to the previous grandmaster indicator – 4-4.5 million tons of production.
But already in the summer the estimate of the harvest increased to 3.8-3.9 million tons, and by the end of the year, in the interpretation of optimists, it still passed the sacred threshold of 4 million tons.
At the end of May of this year, Polish gardeners at “internal seminars” agree that the situation is not as bad as it seemed in winter (when frosts of 20 degrees Celsius and below were recorded) and spring (when night temperatures in some voivodships in the north of the country fell far below zero). In the southern and southeastern “apple regions” there are no losses from weather stresses at all, or they are not great.
In other words, in terms of the quantity and quality of the apple crop, the current season in Poland may turn out to be at least as good as the last one.
Similar or even more positive picture is observed in other major apple producing countries in the EU (Italy, France, Germany, Austria). And all this (key point!) against the background of expectations of a significant increase in prices for apples of the harvest-2026 in Europe.
Potential frustration, though. Especially if we take into account that, for example, the same Poland traditionally supplies apples to the Romanian market, which is actively sought by apple exporters from the Republic of Moldova.
Forecast in Moldova: caution first of all
Vasile Charban, the State Secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry (MAIA), said in an interview with Logos Press that the potential apple harvest in Moldova is estimated at 450 thousand tons as of mid-May.
There is damage to plantations by spring frosts, but their size is being specified. Moisture reserves in orchard soils – on average not less than 90% of average multiyear norm. (The assessment was relevant for the situation before heavy precipitation in the last decade of May, at the moment the level of reserves is higher).
Agronomists claim that spring frosts caused significant damage only to apple orchards in lowlands, which were planted according to the principle of “where the farmer has free land” and not based on agronomic recommendations.
In a certain sense, it is worse that due to the cool, wet and windy weather in Moldova the pollination of orchards was again weak. Also, the dates of high risk of hailstorms have moved forward.
All this together creates significant risks – not so much for the quantity, but for the quality of the harvest. Although the employees of the association “Moldova Fruct” note that at the moment, the advanced farms of the sector are making great efforts to carry out quality agro-technological operations (thinning, protection of plants from diseases, etc.).
The Association “Moldova Fruct” believes that it is too early to make more or less definite forecasts regarding the harvest-2026 (until the stage of “June biological fall of fruits”). At the moment, the representatives of the organization consider it correct from the professional point of view to limit themselves to the assumption that this year’s apple harvest will be higher than last year’s. Last summer “Moldova Fruct” estimated the future apple harvest at 277 thousand tons, 31% lower than the harvest-2024 (404 thousand tons). At the end of the year, the organization adjusted the estimate upward to 300 thousand tons.
From this point of view, the ministry’s forecast can be considered moderately optimistic. In the sense that during the last five-seven years in Moldova the harvest above 400 thousand tons can be referred to the average, as there were seasons when the harvest was estimated at the level of 600 thousand tons and even higher.
Moldovan market structure: changes are coming
Domestic “fresh market”. This is the least clearly assessed segment of the Moldovan apple market. Market operators have been estimating it in the range of 40-50 thousand tons for many years. Although, it is possible that this is one of the numerous stereotypes, as the population of the country is definitely not increasing, its purchasing power is not increasing either. Although apple was and remains relatively affordable (the cheapest seed fruit) in Moldova (and in Europe as a whole). In years with normal and high apple harvest, its consumption – due to high supply and decreasing prices – can be assumed to increase.
The domestic market for the “industrialized apple”. According to the assessment of the Association of Fruit and Vegetable Processors Speranța Con, 7 factories are engaged in the production of apple juice and concentrate in Moldova. Their capacity of apple processing is about 600 thousand tons, but in fact they process this raw material seasonally on average 300-370 thousand tons (period 2022-25). During this period, Moldova produced about 45-55 thousand tons of concentrate.
To understand the scale: Romania produces up to 5 thousand tons of apple concentrate, Ukraine 90-125 thousand tons, Poland 250-400 thousand tons, China 350-650 thousand tons.
Last year, a relatively poor harvest year, the volume of apple processing amounted to about 290 thousand tons, production of apple concentrate – 47 thousand tons.
This year, the apple processing sector has undergone structural changes. According to Speranța Con calculations, until this season, the leading three companies in the sector were TB Fruit (Edinets) with a market share in the purchase of industrial apple of about 40%, Alfa-Nistru (Soroca) – 25% and Orhei-Vit (Orhei) – 19%.
At the moment, Orhei-Vit is at the stage of evaluation of the acquisition by Orhei-Vit of the industrial base of the factory Natur Bravo (Cupcini) – No. 4 in the list of industry operators with a share of up to 10% in the total volume of industrial apple purchase in Moldova.
The buyer intends to invest in the near future to finalize the transaction and prepare the factory for the new apple processing season, but before that it must obtain a positive decision in this regard from the Competition Council of the Republic of Moldova.
As the Orhei-Vit administration commented on the situation to Logos Press, the company has long planned to acquire a full-fledged production base in the “apple north” of the country. In this context, the possibility of acquiring the Natur Bravo industrial base can be considered in line with the company’s strategic goals.
Farmers in the north of Moldova have long been expecting the location of Orhei-Vit’s production site in their region, since the company, unlike its competitors, is a major processor of plums, tomatoes and other fruit crops. This creates prerequisites for farmers to increase the assortment and marketable volumes of fruit and vegetable crops, reduce commercial risks of product sales, and use their land more rationally.
“In the last few years, logistics, in particular – the width of “transportation shoulders” – has played an increasingly important role in the agribusiness system,” notes Boris Efimov, General Director of Orhei-Vit. – From this point of view, the shorter the distance from the orchard to the factory gate, the better, as delivery costs are reduced. Accordingly, there are resources to increase the purchase price of raw materials. It also makes sense to emphasize that our company’s strategy implies quick settlements and zero debts to farmers by the end of the season”.
In its turn, the management of “Moldova Fruct” believes that the greater the number of operating factories for apple concentrate production – the wider the competitive environment and, as a result, the chance to increase the purchase prices for industrial apple in Moldova.
Export of apples. This segment in the structure of the Moldovan apple market is also quite mobile in recent years. Thus, if five years ago export to high-margin foreign markets (European Union, Middle East and South-East Asia) of several thousand tons of Moldovan apples was considered a good result, then in the last two seasons the scale of supplies to these directions is counted in tens of thousands of tons. Moreover, the main share of this volume is absorbed by the EU countries. This is a real success.
At the same time, the share of apple supplies from Moldova to the CIS markets still remained very significant until recently – not less than 60%. This year, the Moldovan authorities made a legal decision to withdraw the country from this bloc and have already denounced a number of CIS agreements. In the branch organizations of fruit growers there is still hope for bilateral intergovernmental agreements with the countries of the bloc and, accordingly, for the former access to the traditional markets for fruit. The near future will show how realistic this “business-only” scenario is.
In any case, Moldovan orchardists need a “backup option: if fresh apple – conditionally, of ordinary, “social” quality – cannot be sold to the markets of CIS countries, there should be a sure chance to sell it for processing not at a throwaway price.
