The geopolitical risk premium in the oil price structure increased after renewed U.S. threats against Iran. President Donald Trump urged Tehran to agree to the nuclear deal. And emphasized that otherwise Iran could face military strikes, with US naval forces in the region ready to act if necessary.
The prospect of a U.S. strike has raised concerns about possible disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies, which account for about a third of the world’s supply. While any Iranian retaliation could threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for oil and liquefied natural gas cargoes, global newswires conclude.
Oil prices have already risen this year despite expectations of a supply glut supported by geopolitical tensions related to Iran and Venezuela, as well as supply disruptions in Kazakhstan. That said, Trump’s latest comments reinforce the risks and impact on further price rises.
For Moldova, as a net importer of energy resources, the dynamics of Brent oil prices is a critical factor directly affecting the cost of living and the stability of the economy.
The main consequences of the fuel price increase create additional inflationary pressure. In Moldova, gasoline and diesel fuel prices are directly linked to international quotations (Platts), which follow the cost of Brent oil. Any jump in the world market is reflected on the price tags of gas stations within a few days or weeks.
The rising cost of fuel increases transportation costs, leading to higher prices for food and consumer goods. In 2025, the country’s inflation has already demonstrated sensitivity to energy prices, fixing at around 7%.
