This forecast is given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the January review of the World Economic Outlook. Compared to the previous, October report, the growth estimate has been slightly increased (from 3.1% to 3.3%). Among the reasons are growing investments in artificial intelligence and easing of monetary policy in different countries of the world.
The increase in the indicator is explained by the boom in investments in artificial intelligence technologies (investments are concentrated mainly in North America and Asia), as well as the easing of monetary policy by the world’s central banks and the high adaptability demonstrated by the private sector in the context of trade wars.
These factors also made possible an improved assessment for the US. The IMF once again forecasts a slowdown in growth for the Chinese and Russian economies. The forecast for the European economy remains virtually unchanged. It is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2026 after an increase of 1.4% in 2025. Among the risk factors is the intensification of trade and political contradictions.
The growth of the Moldovan economy in 2026, according to the forecasts made by the IMF, the World Bank, the UN and the European Commission, does not differ much and fluctuates between 2.2-2.7%. At the same time, inflation is expected to slow down significantly (to 4.6% according to the UN estimate), or 5.5% (according to the IMF). In early 2026, inflation should return to the target range of the National Bank of Moldova (5% ± 1.5%).
The restoration of economic sustainability, according to international organizations, will be supported by domestic demand and stabilization of exports with a good agricultural year, as well as investment projects financed by the EU.
