Ion Chicu
Since the increase in revenue compared to last year amounted to only 270 million lei in monetary terms, the state budget deficit for the first half of 2026 totaled approximately 9.21 billion lei. It rose by 21% compared to the same period last year, when it stood at 7.61 billion lei.
According to the ministry’s data, this modest revenue growth is due to several factors. Among them is a reduction in foreign grants. In the first half of this year, their volume fell to 370 million lei, compared to more than 2.13 billion lei during the same period last year.
There are insufficient funds to cover the deficit
It is worth noting that revenue from taxes and fees in the first half of the year grew by approximately 9% and reached 34.5 billion lei. Specifically, VAT revenue increased by 9%, income tax revenue by nearly 11%, and social security contributions by approximately 10%.
Nevertheless, these revenues were not sufficient to cover a larger portion of the budget. One should not overlook the temporary slowdown in economic growth, which also affected budget revenues.
In this context, a commentary appeared in the press in June stating that, according to information published in the section on daily budget revenue data on the Ministry of Finance’s website, the budget execution plan for the first half of the year would not be met. At that time, we chose not to comment on the budget execution results based on preliminary data.
However, according to Ion Chicu, a member of parliament, former prime minister, and former finance minister, at that time “the data on daily collections from the tax and customs services were down compared to last year—and even more so compared to the plan.”
A plus of 1 billion lei from fuel, but a minus of 2 billion lei from grants
“Revenues were lower, even though we received approximately 1 billion lei from customs due to the rise in the cost of diesel and gasoline,” he says. “In that case, the question arises: what is happening to our economy? There is a partial explanation: other revenues this year are 2 billion lei lower because Moldova’s grants were cut. But when you compare these two factors—1 billion lei added to the budget and 2 billion lei in lost revenue—it still turns out that the plan falls short. This raises the question: how will it be possible to raise salaries for public sector employees starting in September if revenues are lower than planned? Furthermore, investment for the first half of the year was down 2.4%, which is also a sign of lost revenue.”
As for the funds that the authorities are promising to municipalities that voluntarily merge as incentive capital, “no one can guarantee that this money will be provided this year. It could also be allocated next year,” notes Ion Chicu.
Tax increases are unavoidable
Ion Chicu’s question about salaries was rhetorical, and the logical answer was given by Finance Minister Victoria Belous upon taking office.
As Logos Press reported, the draft budget and tax policy for 2027 will be revised. However, it will retain provisions for tax increases and the elimination of tax breaks. It is not yet clear which taxes and tax breaks will be affected, but the government will not be able to avoid such measures due to the reforms already underway and the need for funds to implement them.
In particular, reforming the public sector’s wage system will require approximately 6 billion lei, and the administrative-territorial reform will also place significant pressure on the budget. In this regard, the government will have to find the necessary funds in any case. And first and foremost, this will be achieved by improving tax compliance and combating tax evasion.
“The new draft tax policy will be submitted for public consultation before the law on wages, because we cannot promise reforms without a tax policy.”
