The investment firm now forecasts an average gold price of $4,375 per ounce for the second half of 2026. The full-year target has been raised to $4,533 per ounce. Long-term forecasts through 2030 remain unchanged.
Bernstein noted that in the second quarter, the rise in real interest rates in the U.S. cooled the market as expected: yields rose from 2.0% to 2.28%, and gold prices fell from approximately $4,650 to $4,000 per ounce.
Despite concerns that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might tighten monetary policy following a revision of its inflation forecasts, analysts do not expect a rate hike in the next 12 months. Even if the central bank decides to take this step, analysts estimate that the cycle will be limited to one or two rate hikes.
Bernstein cites continued buying by central banks as a key factor supporting gold. According to the latest survey by the World Gold Council, 89% of central banks expect global gold reserves to continue growing, and a record 45% plan to increase their own reserves over the next year.
Bernstein considers more persistent inflation to be the main risk to its forecast. In that case, the Fed may resort to more aggressive rate hikes, which would increase pressure on the gold market.
