After years of surplus, and even as agricultural exports began to grow strongly in the second half of 2025, the country came to the beginning of 2026 as a steady net importer of food commodities.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2025, food exports declined to about $596 million and imports increased to nearly $800 million, resulting in a deficit of more than $200 million in this segment.
Alarming signal
Viacheslav Ionitsa, an economist at IDIS Viitorul Institute, believes that this is not a cyclical fluctuation for the agricultural economy, but a sign that the economic model is beginning to collapse.
“The shortage of agricultural products is not an anomaly, but a signal of economic degradation,” the expert says.
When there is no production, the economy does not just import – it shrinks
The analyst explains that the danger of the predominance of imports over local production is more profound than simply replacing goods on the shelves. Imports are not the economic equivalent of local production because value chains are reduced or destroyed.
“For example, in the case of pork, domestic production generates up to LE 8.5 billion in economic turnover, while imports of the same volume produce only LE 4-4.3 billion. The difference is not in the quantity, but in the value chain: production includes suppliers, services, processing and domestic consumption, while imports shorten this cycle,” Ionita explains.
It is even easier to explain this with the example of a strategic industry such as winemaking. This production includes grape growers, machinery and its fuel suppliers, processors, producers of bottles, corks, labels, boxes, designers, retailers and service providers for winemaking equipment, metal importers for the same, and a host of other links.
A similar conclusion is confirmed in the sugar industry, where local production brings up to 4.45 billion lei, compared to 1.2-1.5 billion lei in the case of imports. The economy loses not only the product, but also multiplicative economic indicators.
The state budget loses 4-6 times more when we replace production with imports
The strongest argument in favor of government intervention in the ongoing stagnation of food imports is the fiscal impact. In the pork industry, local production brings 800 to 1000 million lei to the state budget, while imports bring only 250-300 million lei. In the sugar industry, the ratio is similar: 420-600 million lei against only 90-120 million lei.
The tax base matters
This reflects a simple reality: production generates taxes on the entire economic chain – wages, profits, consumption – while imports bring mainly only VAT. Consequently, substituting local production for imports undermines the state tax base.
It should be noted here that Moldova’s agri-food complex is unique in its kind, as taxation in it has increased 80 times in 20 years.
20 years ago, most of the agricultural production was carried out in households, which had no relation to the state budget. With the revival of commercial agriculture, taxation of agricultural production began, the amount of which has grown from 11 million lei 20 years ago to more than 800 million lei today. These payments include all types of taxes paid directly and indirectly.
Value added is key – and Moldova is losing it by exporting raw materials
Moldova’s agricultural sector suffers not from a lack of production, but from a lack of processing. The study of income per hectare shows that sugar beet brings about 42.3 thousand lei/ha, which is 2-4 times more than the main cereal crops. This demonstrates that agricultural development does not depend on the area, but on the integration into the value chain.
For comparison, green peas (the second most profitable) yield 19.8 thousand/ha, rapeseed 15.9 thousand, sunflower 13.1 thousand, wheat 11.3 thousand, corn and soybean 10.5 thousand, rice 10.1 thousand lei per hectare.
“In the case of pig breeding, the sector absorbs 1/3 of the entire grain production of Moldova, thus increasing consumption along the entire value chain and stopping the negative process we are facing today – export of raw materials and import of food products”, Veaceslav Ionitae specifies.
In the absence of government intervention, sectoral crises turn into macroeconomic crises
The swine plague in 2025 reduced production by about 35% and caused budgetary losses of about 200 million lei per year. In the absence of prompt support measures, imports increased sharply and the sector lost its ability to recover.
Approximately the same picture, only on a smaller scale, can be seen today in the example of… gingerbread. About a year ago, one of the Moldovan supermarket chains started active import of gingerbread and dried goods produced by a large Ukrainian factory “Kiivkhlib”. The assortment was wider than the products of Moldovan competitors, and the prices were lower. As a result, Moldovan bakery enterprises had to either reduce or completely stop producing gingerbread. And then something happened, and Ukrainian products stopped coming. At least its assortment was greatly reduced. But the Moldovan sector has already been destroyed. And how can it be restored if the further policy of the importers is unknown?
The analysis shows an important fact: state intervention to compensate for losses is compensated for a maximum of two years at the expense of additional tax revenues.
On the other hand, the lack of intervention strengthens the deficit. If 20 years ago Moldova exported 70% of food products (processed) and 30% of agricultural raw materials, today the situation has changed and we export 70% of agricultural raw materials and only 30% of food products. Moldova needs an active policy to support the food industry, to improve the structure of agri-food exports, from the export of raw materials to the export of finished food products, concludes Veaceslav Ionita.
Not like in Europe
The countries of the European Union pursue an active policy of supporting domestic production. Standard tools are subsidies of up to 900 euros/ha for sugar beet and market protection mechanisms, Ionitsa says.
In Moldova, the absence of similar mechanisms puts local producers in an unequal position in which they compete not only with companies but also with foreign state budgets.
Without a clear government policy, food shortages will become the new norm
The trade balance graph indicates the current direction: the economy is beginning to depend on imports of basic goods. Without systemic measures – fiscal, trade and investment – this trend will become entrenched.
In the absence of a coherent policy, Moldova risks permanently shifting from being an agricultural exporter to a net importer, which will have a direct impact on economic and food security.
The government’s initiative to support and promote domestic producers through active fiscal and customs policies should be assessed from the perspective of: how will the government’s policies contribute to reducing the trade deficit in the food segment and how will we manage to restore both external and domestic markets?
Local production is not an option but an economic necessity
The analysis of two food industries (pig farming and sugar production) shows very clearly that local production:
– Multiplies the economy by 2-3 times;
– increases budget revenues by 4-6 times;
– maintains employment and reduces migration;
– increases value added in agriculture.
Imports, on the other hand, offer a short-term solution, but in the long run undermine the economic basis of the state.
Therefore, the question for the authorities is not whether local production should be supported, but how quickly and with what tools the current trend can be reversed, the economic expert recommends.
