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This is reported by RBC-Ukraine with reference to the report of JPMorgan Chase.
Analysts of the largest US bank JPMorgan Chase believe that the most likely outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war is the “Finnish scenario”. However, Ukraine will retain its sovereignty, army and course towards integration with the West.
The report “Ukraine Endgame: The Path to an Imperfect Peace” says that the outcome of the war will be decided at the negotiating table, as the situation on the battlefield has reached a stalemate and the front line has not changed significantly for more than two years.
As part of a compromise with Russia, according to JPMorgan, Ukraine may be forced to agree to neutrality, limiting the size and capabilities of its army. Moscow will be able to present the result as its own victory without achieving Ukraine’s complete surrender.
Kiev will have to follow a path similar to that of Finland: after the war with the USSR, it lost about 10% of its territory, but retained its democratic system, market economy and ties with the West, avoiding direct confrontation with its neighbor. For Kiev, this will mean gradual integration into the European Union and possibly NATO, although initially without the full protection of Article 5 of the alliance’s charter.
What has changed?
Interestingly, a year ago, JPMorgan analysts considered the “Georgian scenario” to be the basic option for Ukraine. That is, Kiev is returning to Moscow’s orbit. But now the bank has significantly revised the forecast due to the strengthening of Kiev by the EU.
Now the probability of the “Finnish scenario” is estimated at 50%, the “Georgian scenario” at 30%, the “Israel” scenario at 10%, and the “South Korea” and “Belarus” models at 5% each.
