Photo: Shutterstock
Goldman analysts revised their own model tracking gold purchases by global central banks and concluded that the market has been underestimating the extent of reserve accumulation since at least August 2025, Bloomberg reported
The bank now estimates the average amount of purchases at 50 tons of gold per month as of March – versus the previous estimate of 29 tons. In January alone, central banks purchased 66 tons of gold. Previously, Goldman estimated this figure at only 12 tons.
The bank attributes the revision to the unusual situation in the London gold market – the largest over-the-counter trading center of the precious metal in the world. Analysts found a growing discrepancy between the volume of gold leaving London vaults and the official export statistics of the UK.
According to Goldman, some of the transactions simply stopped being reflected in public data.
“We adjust the model by adding the difference between gold outflows from London vaults and UK net exports as unreported gold flows,” explained the bank’s specialists Lina Thomas and Daan Strevena.
In Goldman believes that in 2026, the world’s central banks will buy on average about 60 tons of gold every month. Analysts note that interest in the precious metal remains stable against the background of geopolitical tension and the desire of states to diversify reserves.
After the freezing of Russian reserves in 2022, many developing countries began to reduce their dependence on the dollar and increase the share of gold in international reserves. This trend, according to the bank, is becoming long-term.
However, in the short term, Goldman warns of possible volatility. Analysts note that gold remains one of the most liquid protective assets and in case of deterioration of the situation on the stock markets, investors may start selling metal to attract cash.
Earlier World Gold Council reported that the world central banks purchased 244 tons of gold in the first quarter of 2026 against 208 tons a quarter earlier.
Against this background, Goldman remains one of the most optimistic banks in the precious metals market. In January, the bank had already raised its gold forecast for the end of 2026 from $4,900 to $5,400 per ounce.
