Bitcoin started the summer with a fall, having fallen in price by 6.5% in a day and a half. On June 2, the BTC exchange rate hit a two-month low – in the morning it fell below $70 thousand, and closer to the evening it fell below $69 thousand, RBC writes.
At the time of writing, the “first cryptocurrency” is trading at $66,823.
Why the market is falling
Since the beginning of the month, the crypto market has again been under pressure from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, says Oleg Kalmanovich, analyst at Neomarkets and author of the Generation Finance blog on TradingView. On June 1, it became known that Iran stopped the dialog with the U.S. through mediators against the background of the latest Israeli actions in Lebanon and announced the possibility of blocking the passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Such signals increase fears of rising energy prices and inflationary pressure, which traditionally has a negative impact on risky assets, the expert explained.
Additional pressure on the market was exerted by the recent statements of Scott Bessent on the confiscation of about $1 billion in cryptocurrency linked to Iran, said leading investment analyst at Go Invest Nikita Bredikhin. According to him, such a strict policy raises the fears of other market participants, as in theory other cryptocurrency owners, including governments, companies or individuals, could also fall under the blockchain.
Another factor negatively affecting the bitcoin price is the weakening of short-term institutional demand, as indicated by the changing dynamics of flows in spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for bitcoin, according to Kalmanovich. Investors withdrew $1.4 billion from U.S. bitcoin ETFs in the previous trading week, which ended May 29, and more than $480 million more this Monday.
Bredikhin noted that in addition to withdrawals from crypto-ETFs, open bitcoin positions on the CME are being reduced. Capital is being redirected in favor of other assets: at the end of 2025, it was base metals, and then speculative interest shifted to energy futures, the expert explained.
Additional pressure is also exerted by the rapid development of AI, as shares of companies related to artificial intelligence grow faster and show higher volatility, so they are more interesting for both speculators and investors, Bredikhin said. Miners, too, are increasingly shifting from mining bitcoins to building data centers for AI and selling the mined cryptocurrency from reserves to finance business transformation, he said.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the start of bitcoin’s correction coincided with the release of US inflation data for April. Its growth reduces the space for the U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, which in general negatively affects the dynamics of risk assets and leads to the outflow of capital from them, explained Bredikhin.
“The pressure may persist.”
The main event of the next few days will be the report on the U.S. labor market (Nonfarm Payrolls), which should be published on Friday, June 5, reminded Kalmanovich. He specified that the data on employment, unemployment and wages may significantly affect market expectations regarding the further trajectory of interest rates.
If the geopolitical backdrop improves and satisfactory data on the U.S. labor market, bitcoin may rebound back to $73.2k and $76.3k, Kalmanovich forecasts. However, according to him, before fixing above these marks, the potential growth should be considered as a correction within the framework of the ongoing downtrend.
According to Bredikhin, in June, pressure on bitcoin may remain, which is exerted by the sales of miners and competition with the shares of AI projects. Investors, speculators and companies now see more interesting prospects and profitability potential in artificial intelligence, the analyst believes.
“In the baseline scenario, we assume that bitcoin will trade in a broad sideways trend with support at $66 thousand and resistance around $80 thousand. If geopolitical risks increase, the price may correct to the next strong support level at $60 thousand,” Bredikhin said.
“No rally is seen on the horizon.”
Bitcoin has fallen below the psychological mark of $70 thousand, indicating that hopes for a quick return of capital to risky assets, increased liquidity and risk appetite have diminished, according to independent IT consultant Roman Nekrasov. According to his estimates, in June bitcoin will continue to fluctuate in a wide range of $68-78 thousand, where the lower boundary may be broken in case of further aggravation of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the trend towards its settlement may return bitcoin to the ceiling of the range.
“Unfortunately, we don’t see a rally on the horizon: the key rate is not likely to be lowered by the Fed in 2026, despite the change in the regulator’s leadership and the arrival of Republican candidate Kevin Warsh. Although he is considered a protégé of US President Donald Trump, he has sufficient independence in decision-making and will not take risks and allow inflation to accelerate,” says Nekrasov.
The expert noted that the situation may change closer to the fall in the run-up to the US congressional elections (midterm elections), which are scheduled for November 3. According to Nekrasov, the Republicans need to maintain their majority in parliament and Trump will try his best to get out of the Middle East conflict as favorably as possible for party goals.
