The NBM accompanied its monetary policy decision of May 7, 2026 with an encouraging signal of increased economic activity. According to the regulator, the data published by the National Bureau of Statistics for the first two months “reflect a favorable forecast of economic growth in the first quarter of 2026”.
Thus, in January-February 2026, industrial production increased by 2.8%, domestic retail trade grew by an average of 16.3%, while wholesale trade declined by 0.4%. At the same time, the annual rate of exports amounted to 11.6% and the annual rate of imports decreased by 0.6%.
Overall, agricultural production in the first quarter of 2026 increased 8.6% from the same quarter of the previous year. This means that “in terms of sources of consumption financing” will be fine. In addition, in the first quarter of 2026, remittances from abroad to individuals increased by 10.4%, year-on-year. And “the volume of loans in lei increased,” although “the volume of deposits decreased compared to the first quarter of 2025.”
The annual inflation rate in 2026, according to the new NBM estimates, may exceed the target corridor and reach about 7%. Previously, 5% was forecasted.
The decision to increase the prime rate of the NBM was conditioned by the need to stabilize inflation expectations and contain “imported” inflation. According to experts, such measures will make loans more expensive for citizens and businesses, which may slow down the pace of consumption in the coming months and lead to lower GDP growth rates.
