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Against this backdrop, analysts raised their price target for Netflix shares from $84 to $95, according to Yahoo Finance.
“The timing of new content releases was the main reason for weak subscriber and engagement metrics in the second quarter,” said Peter Supino, an analyst at Wolfe Research. He noted that this conclusion is based on an analysis of millions of data points on Netflix viewership.
The weak subscriber growth coincided with a decline in interest in the platform’s most popular titles. Views of Netflix’s top ten movies and series in the second quarter fell by 4% year-over-year. For the ten most popular English-language series, the decline was 21%.
That said, it is still too early to speak of a sharp drop in overall demand for Netflix. In the first half of the year, total viewing time increased by 2%. Wolfe believes the problem was more likely that major shows were released at an inopportune time.
This is evident from the difference between the second and third quarters. Previous seasons of series that returned with new seasons in the second quarter collectively accounted for about 765 million viewing hours in Netflix’s top 10. For series returning in the third quarter, previous seasons garnered about 1.3 billion hours.
Therefore, Wolfe Research expects stronger results from Netflix in the second half of the year and maintains a positive outlook for 2027. The new price target of $95 is calculated using a multiple of 22 times expected 2028 earnings.
Separately, analysts highlight live streaming. Currently, it accounts for about 1% of Netflix’s total viewing time, but already occupies approximately 8% of the top 10 spots on the service in the U.S. and Canada.
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