According to Bloomberg, the ports of Greater Odessa typically account for about 90% of the country’s grain shipments, and alternative routes are not yet capable of compensating for their throughput capacity.
The problem extends beyond the agricultural sector
Disruptions at Black Sea ports create a problem not only for farmers, who are unable to sell their harvested crops in a timely manner. Agricultural products account for more than half of Ukraine’s export revenue, so a reduction in shipments could affect both foreign exchange earnings and the country’s economic performance.
Farmers are forced to either store grain while waiting for exports to resume or sell it on the domestic market at lower prices. At the same time, storage capacity is also limited, and alternative routes via the western borders and the Danube are more expensive and cannot fully replace maritime transport.
According to Bloomberg, the disruptions have already forced a revision of export forecasts. Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture expects wheat shipments in the 2026/27 season to drop to 8.3 million metric tons, down from the previously projected 17.6 million metric tons.
“According to Oxford Economics estimates, the country could lose up to 1.8% of its GDP this year and 2.1% next year. “In the event of serious and prolonged disruptions, Ukraine could lose up to 5.3% of its GDP in 2027,” the organization’s report states,” the Bloomberg article notes.
Pavel Martyshev, an agricultural economist at the Kyiv School of Economics, described the situation as follows: “We are heavily dependent on ports. Prolonged export restrictions could have broader consequences for the economy. There will be inflation, and GDP growth will slow.”
The National Bank of Ukraine has estimated that the country could lose up to $2.5 billion this year due to the export blockade. This will lead to widespread bankruptcies among farms and undermine morale in rural areas, the publication notes.
Alternative routes do not solve the problem
Ukraine is trying to increase exports via rail routes to the west and through Danube ports. However, their capacity is limited, and transportation costs are higher than for shipments via the Black Sea.
Moreover, farmers in neighboring countries are no longer as supportive of grain shipments—or even transit—from Ukraine, the publication acknowledges. “In 2022, overland routes through Eastern Europe became a lifeline for the country’s agricultural sector, but in recent years, sympathy for Ukraine has waned: Polish farmers periodically block grain exports at border crossings,” Bloomberg emphasizes.
According to the publication’s estimates, even when using alternative routes, the country will be able to export about 30 million metric tons of agricultural products this season, while a comparable volume may remain in storage or fail to be sold in a timely manner.
“President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine has approved subsidized loans for agricultural producers and plans further measures to increase storage capacity. Kyiv has requested a 220 million euro grant from the European Union to finance these measures,” the article notes.
Thus, the problem with the ports is becoming more than just a logistical issue. Prolonged disruptions to exports pose a risk to the financial stability of agricultural enterprises and, at the same time, increase pressure on the Ukrainian economy, which has become even more dependent on the agricultural sector during the war.
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