Photo: Сергей Гунеев/РИА Новости
The regulator has raised its inflation forecast for next year to 6–7%. In June, the forecast stood at 4.5–5%. By the end of September, year-over-year price growth could accelerate to 6.3%, up from 6% at the end of June.
One of the main reasons for the acceleration in inflation has been rising fuel prices, notes RBC. At the same time, the Central Bank maintains its expectation that price growth will return to the 4% target level in 2027.
The economic growth forecast for 2026 has also changed: the Central Bank now expects GDP to grow by only 0–1%, which is 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous forecast. The bank attributes this to a temporary decline in production capacity in certain sectors.
In the first half of the year, Russians spent more than the regulator had expected, so the forecast for consumer spending growth was raised to 1.5–2.5%. However, in the second half of the year, the Central Bank expects consumers to adopt a more cautious approach.
Investment also turned out to be weaker than at the start of the year: the forecast for business investment in fixed assets for 2026 was lowered. However, the Bank of Russia expects a recovery in 2027–2028.
Sberbank had previously revised its inflation forecast: the bank also expects price growth in the range of 6.5–7% and more modest GDP growth of 0–0.5%.
