To sell or not to sell grain - that is the question. Expert opinion
Earlier this week in the U.S., U.S. May wheat futures prices on the exchange (CBOT, Chicago) passed the $590/bushel mark (about $217/t) and are approaching the psychological level of 600 cents/bushel (about $220/t).
In the European Union, the price of wheat on the Eutonext exchange (MATIF, Paris) has already exceeded 200 euros/t. This means that in the very near future in European ports of the Black Sea (FOB Constanta, Varna, etc.) the price of wheat, depending on its quality and other parameters of transactions, will be “in the working range” of $230-240/t.
Theoretically, it can also mean the price for wheat of flour-milling quality (protein content 12.5% and higher) in the range of $190-205/t “at the gates of agricultural enterprises” in the south of Moldova. In other words, the price of wheat in the region near the port of Giurgiulesti may soon be 3.4-3.7 lei/kg – depending on the exchange rate of the leu against the US dollar and euro, quality, batch size, etc. So is it worth selling now?
Mode of “active caution”
According to Iurie Rija, an expert in agro-marketing, the high level of uncertainty in all spheres of economy dictates the need for farmers to switch to the “active caution” mode.
That is, on the one hand, the grain market has already entered the phase of an upward trend, which is quite conducive to sales at prices above $200/t. However, on the other hand, the level of exchange prices above the mark of 617 cents per bushel and $227/t will signal that the grain market has entered a qualitatively new stage of growth, in which prices at the level of 240-250/t may well appear in the coming weeks.
It is also important to take into account that the global crisis of blocked logistics and rising prices of oil, oil products, gas and, along the chain – mineral fertilizers is far from over. This obviously means that inputs will become more expensive during the spring fieldwork period. Meanwhile, probably not all Moldovan farmers have stocked up the necessary amount of diesel fuel and fertilizers during the autumn-winter period, when there were “windows of low prices” for these resources.
