The first three months of the year have already been among the four warmest, despite the influence of La Niña, which usually restrains the growth of temperatures. At the same time, a record low level of sea ice has been recorded in the Arctic. This is reported by RBC-Ukraine with reference to Euronews.
The risk of a new temperature record
Experts also expect that in the fall may form a strong El Niño phenomenon. It is estimated that in 2026 there is about 19% probability that it will become the warmest year in history, surpassing previous records.
Carbon Brief, a climate analytics resource that specializes in climate change research and scientific data analysis, predicts, based on information from five scientific panels, that 2026 will almost certainly be one of the top four warmest years on record. There is also a high probability that it will be the second warmest.
Temperatures are expected to rise throughout the year and could peak in late fall and winter, when climate processes typically intensify.
What El Niño is and how it is measured
El Niño is a warming phenomenon in the tropical Pacific Ocean that affects global weather patterns. It can cause droughts, floods, marine heat waves, and other climate anomalies.
The strength of the phenomenon is usually determined by the ocean surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region. If it exceeds the norm by more than 0.5 °C, it is an El Niño, more than 1.5 °C – a strong phenomenon, and more than 2 °C – the so-called “super” El Niño.
According to the latest estimates, temperatures could exceed normal by as much as 2.2 °C by September, corresponding to a “super” El Niño scenario. Such conditions usually peak between November and January.
Should this scenario materialize, the likelihood of 2027 becoming the warmest year on record would increase significantly.
New forecast model
Meanwhile, researchers at the University of Hawaii at Manoa unveiled a new model that can forecast El Niño and La Niña about 15 months in advance.
“We found that it can predict El Niño and La Niña surprisingly well, with useful accuracy up to about 15 months in advance,” said study author Yuxin Wang.
The ability to make long-term predictions allows governments and communities to prepare for and mitigate climate risks in advance, he said.
