Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has risen to $64,000, fallen to nearly $61,000, and then begun to rise again. As of 10:15 a.m. Chisinau time on July 7, the price of the leading cryptocurrency is hovering around $63,300.
Experts told RBC Crypto how Bitcoin is likely to perform in the coming days, what events could contribute to its rise or fall, and what technical analysis indicators are showing.
“Key support remains in place”
This week, Bitcoin will continue to trade within the $61,000–$65,000 range, showing moderate upside potential, according to independent IT consultant Roman Nekrasov. According to him, the market received support from weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market data, which bolstered hopes for a policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). The resumption of capital inflows into Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also added to the positive sentiment.
As long as key support in the $60,000–$61,000 range holds, the most likely scenario appears to be a move toward $64,000–$66,000, the expert believes. He noted, however, that the nearest resistance levels are in the $63,500–65,000 range. If buyers manage to hold above these levels, the market will receive an additional signal to continue its upward trend, Nekrasov said.
However, it is still too early to speak of a complete trend reversal, as Bitcoin remains sensitive to macroeconomic data and ETF inflows, the analyst added.
“If investor interest wanes, profit-taking begins following the recent rally, or the U.S. president makes another unexpected statement—such as launching an invasion of Cuba or declaring negotiations with Iran a failure— the price could sharply correct and return to $58,000–59,000, and in a more negative scenario, test the $54,000–57,000 range,” Nekrasov believes.
“Sailor’s Image Is Shattered”
Bitcoin is holding steady around the key $60,000 level, despite there being plenty of news that could trigger a collapse, says Vagiz Nurullov, managing partner at VG GROUP. According to him, this means there is demand.
The expert believes the main story of the week is Strategy, the largest public holder of Bitcoin, and its founder, Michael Saylor. He noted that the company sold 3,500 Bitcoin for approximately $216 million.
“Formally, this is a sale to replenish dollar reserves, but psychologically, for the market, this is more important than any formality. For many years, Saylor was a symbol of absolute HODL: always buy, never sell. Now that image has been shattered,” said Nurullov.
According to him, the sales do not mean that Strategy has lost faith in Bitcoin. Rather, its financial structure has become too sensitive to Bitcoin’s price, dividends, the cost of capital, and pressure on its shares. Nurullov pointed out that Bitcoin is now not only an ideological asset for the company but also a source of liquidity.
“This changes the tone for the market. Strategy is now not only a perpetual buyer but also a potential seller. Therefore, any rebound will now be met with the question: Will they start selling BTC again to balance the books and maintain their dollar reserves?” the expert believes.
He noted that the market is currently testing whether the $60,000 zone is a base for accumulation or simply a pause before a new decline. The base scenario for the week is a sideways movement within the $59,000–$66,000 range. As long as BTC remains above $60,000, it’s too early to talk about capitulation, and if the $60,000–$61,000 level holds, a rebound to $65,000–$66,000 is possible, Nurullov said. However, he noted that for real momentum to take hold, there needs to be a strong inflow into ETFs, a reduction in geopolitical pressure, or a reversal in rate expectations.
A negative scenario would be a break below $59,000–$60,000. In that case, the price would begin moving toward $55,000–$57,000, especially if this coincides with new Strategy sales or a deterioration of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the analyst added.
Signs of a Reversal
From a technical analysis perspective, a fairly rare pattern is currently visible on the weekly timeframe—a bullish engulfing candle, explained Cryptorg analyst Dmitry Savintsev. He explained that this pattern consists of two candles, with the later one completely overlapping the previous one. Typically, such a pattern is seen as a sign of an impending strong reversal, the analyst said.
According to him, the formation of a dense resistance zone in the $65.5–66.2 thousand range also points to a possible imminent upward reversal. Just above that is a liquidity zone where a large number of buy and sell orders are concentrated—$66.3–67.3 thousand.
“Right now, a lot depends on the actions of buyers. If the bulls become more active in the market and Bitcoin breaks through the $65,000 mark and firmly consolidates above that level, then we can say there is a high probability of further growth to $70,000,” Savintsev suggested.
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