Donald Trump and Xi Jinping (Photo: Evelyn Hockstein / Reuters)
An American president is traveling to China for the first time in nine years.
For the first time in history, the head of China will receive the US president as an equal, the BBC reports.
As it turned out after Trump’s return to the White House a year ago, China also has trumps in the confrontation with the United States. Trump lost the trade war, he failed to turn China against Russia and Iran, and his own campaign promises to curb China’s technological and military development were shattered by the harsh reality.
As a result, neither China nor the US can dictate terms to each other anymore, but neither is ready to issue ultimatums just yet. Therefore, this visit will be at best a prelude to further meetings between Xi and Trump – at least three more are planned for the coming year alone.
A bad peace is better than a good quarrel
“Don’t get your hopes up for the upcoming summit between Trump and Xi,” warns Jonathan Jing, a former analyst in the CIA’s China department and now a researcher at the US-based Brookings Institution. – The relationship has stabilized since the leaders met last November, but it is characterized more by a lack of conflict than by any constructive agenda.”
Therefore, the main outcome of Trump’s visit to Beijing will be the very fact that the two world leaders met and parted amicably.
“A modest step toward stability and predictability in the relations between the two most important countries in the world,” is how Edgard Kagan, an expert on China from the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), describes the upcoming summit.
Over the past decade, all contacts between China and the US – political, diplomatic, military – have gradually come to naught. Therefore, the very fact that the two leading nuclear powers have resumed direct dialog makes the world safer, says Michael Froman, a former senior White House official in charge of foreign trade and relations with the G7 and APEC, an association of Asian and American countries, in the Barack Obama administration.
“The new U.S. administration’s China policy seems to be to avoid conflict. No one else is trying to resolve the major issues in the bilateral relationship: China’s economic expansion, plans to annex Taiwan, and support for U.S. adversaries Iran and Russia,” Froman notes.
“Therefore, it is unlikely that the Trump-Xi summit will change the nature and course of U.S.-China relations in the long term. It is about guaranteeing stability, not solving burning problems.”
“China is stronger”
“China and Xi Jinping’s position ahead of this meeting is much stronger,” said CSIS expert Scott Kennedy, who recently returned from China, where he discussed the upcoming summit with officials and businessmen. – But even if they don’t make significant progress, but the summit is scandal-free and Trump doesn’t slam the door, China will be the overall winner.
A year ago, things were different. Trump returned to power under the slogan of defeating China and imposed draconian tariffs against Chinese goods. That was also the case in his first term, but this time China responded harshly – and Trump backtracked.
“China now confidently confronts Trump on many key issues, including sanctions, the war in Iran, control over technology and rare earth metals,” CSIS experts say.
Moreover, Trump has weakened America’s position in the competition with China for world domination with his decrees, believes Bronwen Maddox, director of the Russian-desirable organization Chatham House.
“The Chinese leadership could not dream of what Trump has done for China upon his return to the White House,” she writes. – “He canceled Joe Biden’s subsidies, allowing China to build leadership in clean technology. He imposed duties on U.S. allies, including Vietnam and India, pushing them closer to Beijing. He undermined NATO’s credibility and sided with Russia in its war with Ukraine. And now it is bogged down in its war with Iran.”
Putin’s Shadow
Because of the Iran war, Trump’s visit to China was not only delayed but also complicated. There were enough problems in bilateral relations before the war, and now we will have to discuss the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused world oil prices to soar and China to lose a significant share of oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf.
But no matter how much China wants to unblock its main route for maritime energy imports, geopolitical considerations will play a primary role at the summit, CSIS China expert Edgard Kagan said.
“China will try to avoid the impression that it is putting pressure on Iran on behalf of the United States,” he said.
The situation is similar with Russia and Ukraine.
“The negotiations may raise the question of China’s role in a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, but China, for its part, will almost certainly continue to support the Russian war machine,” Edgard Kagan believes.
Any agreements between Trump and Xi will only be worth the paper bought under them if Trump doesn’t immediately get upset and change his mind. This has often happened before, and this time he has enough reasons to do so.
For example, if Xi, after Trump, receives Russian President Vladimir Putin with more pomp and friendliness.
The Kremlin has repeatedly hinted that the visit is on track, and it is possible that as soon as Trump leaves, Xi will roll out the carpet for Putin, or even sign an agreement with him to build the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline, challenging the main idea of Trump’s second term – U.S. energy hegemony in the world.
Trump will probably try to convince China to buy more oil and gas from the United States, the world’s largest energy producer, to the detriment of its current purchases from Iran and Russia.
If China doesn’t make a firm commitment to buy U.S. liquefied natural gas, but still signs a gas contract with Putin, Trump could get upset and things could go wrong again in U.S.-China relations.
The beginning of a beautiful friendship. How long will it last?
“The Chinese really need this summit,” notes CSIS’s Edgard Kagan.
Face-to-face contact with Trump will help Xi Jinping extend the tariff truce, ease trade restrictions, and convince Trump not to increase, if not decrease, support for Taiwan, he says:
“The Chinese want to maintain good relations with the US, and therefore value Trump and Xi’s personal relationship. Obviously, the US wants the same thing.”
But expecting breakthroughs is not a good idea – distrust is too high, the world’s problems have not abated, and China’s confidence that America will keep the promises Trump has made leaves much to be desired. Firstly, because Trump is not eternal, and secondly, the congressional elections in November may change the balance of power in America.
The Democrats’ return to power does not promise China anything good. Democratic President Joe Biden has never traveled to China and has generally pursued a policy of restraint toward the world’s second largest economy.
When Trump returned to power, he went on the offensive. But he soon realized that the world had changed. China retaliated, and eventually Trump was forced into a truce with it, for which he met Xi in 2025 at an airport in South Korea, where both flew to a summit of two dozen Asian and American countries.
If Trump’s current visit to Xi goes without surprises, the two will start meeting more often. Trump will probably invite Xi to the U.S. for a state visit in the fall, and he will be in China for the APEC summit in November, after which Xi might come to the G-20 summit in Miami later in the year.
And that’s another reason why the current summit promises no breakthroughs or sensations, says former Tsrushnik Jonathan Jing of the Brookings Institution. Trump likes nice and loud “deals.” It will be easier to get concessions from him when the November midterm congressional elections loom, he speculates for the Chinese. So for now, it’s ritualistic dancing without specifics.
“The Trump administration loudly and preemptively announced several summits between the two leaders at once, thus depriving Beijing of the incentive to make any significant concessions this time around,” Jing says.
