While it is too early to make accurate predictions, Tony Derwael of Bel’Export says the situation should be taken seriously.
“While here in maritime climates the penetrating east wind has mainly caused dehydration, in continental climates it has caused serious frost damage,” Fresh Plaza quoted the trader from Borgloon in Belgium as saying.
This is especially important given Poland’s particularly important role in Europe’s fruit business.
“Poland is the largest producer in the EU, with a typical harvest of 4-5 million tons of apples,” explains Tony Derwael. – But countries such as Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus, which account for more than 2 million tons of apples, should not be underestimated, and they were also affected. It’s not just apples that have been affected; summer fruits such as berries and plums have also been hit hard by the overnight frosts.”
Early signals from the market are clear, he said. “Based on our contacts and reports from the industry, there is talk of a 30-50% crop reduction due to last week’s spring night frosts.” Earlier winter frosts may also have played a role. “We have yet to determine if temperatures below -20 degrees Celsius a few months ago caused additional damage to trees and rootstocks.”
Doubling prices?
There will be a clear impact on the European fruit market due to potential problems in the upcoming crop either way.
“We can expect potential European apple production to be reduced by at least 2 million tons. This will put us below the consumption threshold of 10 million tons. We saw a similar situation in 1991, when production was only about 9 million tons. Back then, a deficit of 2 million tons led to a doubling of prices, even for apples from the previous year’s harvest. This is obviously very unpleasant for consumers, but there is a saying: “What is death to one is bread to another,” notes Tony Derwael.
This could be a solution to the large volumes of current season apples still in storage. “There is still quite a large stockpile available. This is putting a lot of pressure on the current market. These large stocks are putting pressure on the market and keeping prices too low. I also expect that the market will not be completely clear of stockpiles at the start of the new season, but as difficult as it is, the new situation in Eastern Europe may bring some relief.”
“There is currently no surplus of green and yellow apple varieties such as Greenstar and Golden Delicious,” explains Tony Derwael . “As a result, demand and prices are developing more favorably than for bicolor apple varieties, prompting a critical evaluation of the current variety range. Notably, the situation is quite different from the Golden Delicious crisis of the late 1970s and early 1980s, when it was the two-color varieties that performed better than varieties such as Golden and Granny Smith, for which there is now a shortage rather than a surplus.”
Redistribution of export flows
According to Tony Derwael, problems in Eastern Europe could cause major changes in the market. “The region has traditionally been an important supplier to markets such as Russia. If their production declines, other countries will have to compensate for this demand.”
Logos PressRemark : The Polish apple market is traditionally a difficult market to forecast. Last year, expert forecasts of Polish apple production during the marketing season drifted from the pessimistic level of 3.2-3.4 million tons to the realistic level of 3.8-3.9 million tons. At the end of the season there were even suspiciously optimistic forecasts – 4.0-4.1 million tons. Among other things, they influenced the weakening of prices for industrial apples and apple concentrate in spring of this year. In such a situation, frosts and alarmist forecasts regarding the-2026 apple harvest in Europe, especially in Eastern Europe, apparently say little about the actual prospects of the future harvest, but send a definite signal to European consumers of apples and apple concentrate: “buy now – it may be much more expensive later”.
