As the report showed, the key shift is not in the numbers, but in the market mood. Expensive money and geopolitical risks have cooled down investment activity, but have not broken demand: the segment is still supported by a shortage of quality supply.
Against this background, the geography of growth is changing.
According to Prian, in 2026, Asian and Southern European markets will take the lead. Seoul is becoming the main driver: prices here may increase by 6-8%. Tokyo, Madrid, Lisbon and Cape Town are in the group of the closest pursuers with growth of 4-6%.
At the same time, Tokyo remains the most representative case of the current cycle. In 2025, the luxury housing market here grew by 30%. This is one of the strongest jumps in recent years. The growth was fueled by several factors at once: a severe supply shortage, rising construction costs, a weak yen and an influx of international capital. In 2026, the overheating effect will gradually subside, but investor interest remains.
Europe is showing a flatter trajectory. Madrid, Lisbon and Athens continue to benefit from limited supply – this remains the main driver of price growth in the region. At the same time, Paris and Amsterdam are beginning to emerge from the correction phase: improving financing conditions are gradually bringing buyers back.
The situation in Asia and the Anglo-Saxon markets is contrasting. In China, the luxury segment remains under pressure: in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hangzhou, prices in 2026 may fall by 2-4% due to weak demand. Pressure remains in the US as well as in London, where the market is sensitive to borrowing costs and tax burden.
As a result, the luxury housing market is entering a more mature phase: without sharp jumps, with a clear division into growing and stagnant locations. The main intrigue of 2026 is not the overall growth, but the choice of the right city.
