According to the updated report, the bank expects the price of silver to be around $85 an ounce by the end of June versus the previous forecast of $100. The forecast for September has been lowered to $85 from $95, for December to $80 from $85, and for March 2027 to $75 from $85. At the time of publication, spot prices for the metal are holding near $73.80 per ounce, according to investing.com
The revision of expectations followed a reassessment of market factors. UBS analysts forecast that the silver deficit in 2026 will shrink to 60-70 million ounces, significantly lower than the previous estimate of about 300 million ounces.
In a research note, the bank’s strategists Wayne Gordon and Dominic Schneider pointed to weakening industrial and investment demand. They estimate that high metal prices are already curbing consumption in the photovoltaic sector, as well as reducing demand for jewelry and silverware. Combined, these factors could reduce global demand by about 50 million ounces.
On the other hand, UBS expects silver production to reach around 850 million ounces, further easing pressure on the market.
According to investing.com, investment demand is also showing signs of decline. Assets in silver-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) fell by nearly 70 million ounces to about 794 million ounces. At the same time, net speculative positions in the futures market fell to just over 100 million ounces. As a result, the bank lowered its estimate of annual investment demand from more than 400 million ounces to 300 million ounces.
“In line with the smaller deficit, we have reduced our price forecasts over all time horizons. In the baseline scenario, silver is expected to trade predominantly in a sideways range,” the review said.
Despite the general decline in expectations, UBS did not sharply worsen forecasts, pointing to the support from the gold market. According to analysts, the growth of gold prices remains an important stabilizing factor for silver, and the correlation between the two metals has recently strengthened. The bank expects the gold/silver price ratio to stabilize in the 75-80 range over time.
