However, at the time of writing, bitcoin is trading around $77,100. Over the past 24 hours, the rate of digital gold has risen by 5%, writes forklog.com.
Earlier Glassnode noted that to consolidate the bullish trend, the first cryptocurrency needs to break through $78,000 – the level of the true average market price.
The flagship was followed by the broader market. Ethereum quotes jumped 6% to $2400. XRP added 6.3%, Solana – 6.5%.
Amid the rise in quotations, the volume of liquidations almost reached $200 million in an hour. Most of it – $171 million – came from short positions. The daily figure reached $728 mln.
Araghchi wrote that commercial ships will be able to pass through the strait until the end of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The ten-day truce was reached the day before, on April 16.
US President Donald Trump confirmed the opening of Hormuz. At the same time, he specified that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports would continue until the conclusion of negotiations with Tehran.
According to the head of the United States, the parties have agreed on most of the points of the deal, so the process “should go very quickly”.
Oil and stock market reaction
Reports of the representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry had a negative impact on energy quotations. Brent oil sagged by 10% to $89, and WTI fell by almost 11% to $84. At the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East and after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, fuel prices exceeded $100.
The U.S. stock market took the news positively. The S&P 500 index returned to all-time highs and exceeded the 7,000-point mark for the first time since late January. The Nasdaq also broke through the ATH.
At the same time, the leaders of the rally were technology companies, writes Bloomberg. According to analysts, private investors forgot about the war with Iran and began buying up shares of firms in the field of AI and innovation.
“After the truce was announced, focus quickly returned to artificial intelligence and other technology themes, and stocks popular with private investors – especially the most volatile ones – began to lead the market up from local lows,” commented Dave Mazza of Roundhill Investments.
However, conditions remain “fragile,” experts said. Oil has yet to return to pre-war levels, and in March it posted its highest monthly gain since 2022. The impact of the conflict on the Gulf’s energy infrastructure remains unappreciated.
What this means for cryptocurrencies
MN Trading founder Michael van de Poppe expects bitcoin to rise following the stock market. In particular, he pointed to the Nasdaq, which has risen for 12 consecutive days.
“The problems in the Middle East and the private credit market haven’t gone anywhere, so this kind of dynamic is definitely alarming,” warned Matt Maley of Miller Tabak.
Similar situations – where the index was experiencing a strong rally and digital gold was at a relatively mature stage – have only happened twice before: in July 2013 and July 2017. In both cases, the first cryptocurrency followed the Nasdaq after a while:
– in 2013, the price of the asset rose 1000% six months after the index reached its peak;
– in 2017, it jumped 400%.
In previous phases of Nasdaq growth (less pronounced than now), bitcoin lagged for two to three weeks, but then outperformed the asset by four to six times.
“My base case scenario: we will see a rally to $85,000-88,000 as a first test, but if the Nasdaq continues to rise, I wouldn’t be surprised if bitcoin aims for all-time highs in the fourth quarter of 2026,” van de Poppe predicted.
Other analysts remain more reserved in their assessments of further market dynamics. According to an expert under the pseudonym Darkfost, the current environment remains highly volatile and speculative, with futures reacting sharply to each new headline.
An hour after the announcement, the volume of aggressive buying in the derivatives sector exceeded $2.1 billion. Binance alone accounted for more than $1.9 billion, he noted.
Options market positioning remains uncertain, according to Glassnode.
On the one hand, traders are actively buying calls, creating a zone that could accelerate upside if $74,000-78,000 is broken. On the other, volatility is falling, protective bets are not getting smaller, and there is no certainty of a move.
The market cannot decide whether to use the current volatility or prepare for a new move. Positions remain unsure, and no one is leading the rally, the specialists summarized.
Nexo confirmed the contradiction: the rally is gaining momentum, but the derivatives market does not believe in it. Funding rates remain low, demand remains elevated and positions remain defensive.
