For Moldova, directly affected by the US tariff restrictions, the IMF’s forecast for 2025 is significantly worsened. GDP growth will amount to only 0.6%, as reported in the materials of the European Department of the Fund within the framework of the spring session of the World Bank and IMF group held in Washington. Last October, the IMF also worsened the forecast of the Moldovan economy growth in 2025 – to 3.7% instead of the previous 4.8%.
According to the IMF’s assessment, from 2026 the country’s economy will shift to recovery growth, which will amount to 2.5% next year (the previous forecast was 4.4%), and 5% in 2027.
The IMF also forecasts that inflation in Moldova will be at 8% this year (previous forecast – 5%) and will decline to 5.9% in 2026.
In addition, the fund’s economists worsened their assessment of the current account deficit – this year to 14.5% of GDP from 10.7% of GDP. In 2026, the current account deficit is expected to be 13.8% of GDP.
IMF data show that Moldova will have the lowest economic growth in the region. In comparison, Romania is expected to grow at 1.6% this year, Ukraine at 2.0%, North Macedonia at 3.2%, Albania at 3.8%, and the regional average is expected to be 2.1%.
It was reported earlier this week that the World Bank (WB) also sharply downgraded Moldova’s GDP growth forecast for 2025-2026 and now expects it to rise by 0.9% and 2.4%, respectively. In January, the WB confirmed the forecast made last October: Moldova’s GDP was expected to grow by 3.9% in 2025 and by 4.5% in 2026.
In 2024, Moldova’s GDP grew by 0.1%, after increasing by 1.2% in 2023 and decreasing by 5.9% in 2022.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy made at the end of last year, the country’s GDP will increase by 2.5-3% in 2025.
It will soon become known whether Moldovan economists will agree with the updated forecasts of their foreign colleagues. The Institute of Economic Research will present its scenario of economic growth. The revised official forecast of the Ministry of Economy, which will form the basis for this year’s budget rectification, is not yet available.
