The IMF welcomed the NBM’s prompt response to energy shocks, which brought inflation back to the target range of 5% ± 1.5%. Moldova’s banking system remains resilient despite external shocks. At the same time, the fund emphasizes the importance of further strengthening macroprudential supervision, saying that the required bank reserve ratios are still high. Experts recommend their gradual reduction as inflation risks subside.
Foreign exchange reserves
The Fund considers the current level of foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank adequate and sufficient to protect the economy from external shocks.
Despite a slight decline in early 2026, the volume of reserves remains at a high level. Reserves are near their historical highs reached at the end of 2024 (about $5.4 billion). For January 2026, reserves declined slightly (by about €23.6 million) due to external debt repayments and foreign exchange interventions.
Despite this, current reserves (about 5.09 billion euros, or more than $5.1 billion) are sufficient to cover critical imports for several months, which is essential for the stability of energy prices, which are purchased with foreign currency.
In addition, the volume of the NBM’s reserves supports the confidence of external investors and creditors, the IMF notes. The presence of significant assets confirms Moldova’s solvency on external debts, which attracts foreign aid and loans, further fueling the supply of currency on the domestic market.
IMF Recommendations
The IMF emphasizes that maintaining an adequate level of reserves is critical to withstand potential shocks related to energy risks against the backdrop of a tense international environment, armed conflicts, and volatile energy prices.
The Fund recommends maintaining flexibility in the leu exchange rate, using reserves only to smooth excessive volatility and not to artificially hold the exchange rate.
At the beginning of 2026, there is a trend towards strengthening of the national currency (the dollar exchange rate was around 16.92 MDL by mid-February). Reserves allow the regulator to gently manage this process, preventing excessive strengthening, which could harm exporters.
