This general conclusion was voiced during the presentation of the 54th edition of the report “Trends in Moldova’s Economy” by the specialists of the Institute of Economic Research at the Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova (ASEM).
The event, timed to the 15th anniversary of the launch of this research project, on Wednesday, April 29, gathered experts from the academic community, representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization and businesses to discuss trends and forecasts in the context of compliance with EU standards.
Thus, academics attribute the GDP growth of 2.4% in 2025 to positive changes in the industrial sector (by 5.4%) and the recovery of the agricultural sector (by 13.8%). In addition, the information technology and telecommunications sector continues to make a positive contribution to GDP formation.
Imbalance in foreign trade
Despite these individual sectoral achievements, Moldova’s economy faces significant imbalances. Foreign trade showed mixed dynamics last year, with exports growing by 6.4% and imports showing a sharp increase of 20.5%. This led to an increase in the trade deficit to $7.1 billion, which indicates the continued dependence of the national economy on imports.
The central theme of the discussion was the need to support the small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) sector, which is of basic importance for sustainable development. The authors noted the amendments to the legislation in line with the EU recommendations and the tripling by the state of the budget allocated to the Organization for the Development of Entrepreneurship (ODA), which reached 1.35 billion lei last year.
Diversificationof financial instruments
Victoria Cociug, Vice-Rector for Research and Partnerships within ASEM, emphasized the importance of diversifying financial instruments for entrepreneurs:
“We want to support startups, but grants should be considered only as a first incentive. It is crucial that public funds are effectively managed, and in the development process companies benefit from new financial instruments such as bank guarantees and investment loans. At the same time, it is necessary to encourage the creation of local investment funds to attract resources from the diaspora”.
The authors of the report also warn about inflationary pressures. Inflation has risen to 7.8% in 2025, mainly due to rising prices for services and food, and the national debt has reached 43% of GDP.
Migration and demographic decline
Remittances from abroad increased by 3%. At the same time, the clear dominance of the euro (82% of total funds) indicates the orientation of migration and the economy towards the EU space.
In the long term, the most serious problem identified by scientists remains demographic decline. According to the forecasts of the Institute’s experts, Moldova’s population may decrease to 1.85 million people by 2040 against the background of low birth rate and emigration of young people.
This trend will lead to a sharp aging of the population. According to their estimates, in less than two decades, a third of Moldova’s citizens will be over 60 years old, which will put additional pressure on the social protection system and the labor market.
